Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Roy Morgan Strikes Again!

The boys over at No Minister have published the latest Roy Morgan opinion poll, and quelle surprise, it's bad news for the Government - very, very bad news. Here's the Roy Morgan report:


Bottom line - National up 3 to 48%, and holding a 14 point lead over Labour, down 6.5 to 34%. Just when Helen was trumpeting that the worm had turned, that the honeymoon was over, that the "hollow men" were being exposed as "all style-no substance", it's all gone sour for Labour.

However, a read of the commentary accompanying the poll result shows that this is REALLY bad news for Labour - here's what the Roy Morgan people said:

"Gary Morgan says:

“The recent plunge in support for the Labour Party follows the mishandling of the domestic terrorism case with the October 15 arrests of Maori activists in Ruatoki.

“Solicitor-General David Collins’ ruling on November 8 that the Government’s anti-terrorism law couldn’t be used to prosecute the activists because the law was ‘confusing’ and ‘incoherent’ reflects badly on the Government’s competence.

“The referral of the Terrorism Suppression Act back to the Law Commission for major re-working — effectively scrapping the current legislation, has brought into question Helen Clark’s ability to protect New Zealanders from the scourge of terrorism. The National Party has strengthened their vote to lead Labour by a massive 14%.”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 808 electors between October 29 — November 11, 2007. "

Now those dates take on added significance. The polling period ended on Sunday November 11th. And as we all know, the New Zealand Herald climbed into the government on Monday 12 November - a development that is not captured in this poll! Labour's "outing" by the Herald for their attack on democracy, John Boscawen's march in Auckland, and the reporting back of the EFB and second reading debate will all feature in the next Roy Morgan poll. Oh yes, so will the release of the SSC report into the Madeleine Setchell affair, the revelation of cronyism in the Environment Ministry, and the survey that shows that 57% of Kiwis think that the government has too much control over their lives!! No Minister's by-line, "Roy Morgan Kneecaps Clark" pretty much says it all! To paraphrase the old song - "How low can they go?"


Anonymous said...

We will still have a Labour led Government after 2008, as indicated by these poll figures.

Inventory2 said...

I don't think so Anon - both Winston and Peter Dunne have said that they will negotiate first with whoever has the greatest percentage of the popular vote. Of course, that's assuming that either Winston or Peter survive the fallout from supporting the EFB. You could argue that NZ First's rise in this poll has been on the back of their support for the police over the Tuhoe 17. The next RM poll will be telling.

Anonymous said...

Look at Peter's anti-National rantings in the House and Woolerton's pro-EFB beligerance.
"First negotiations" promises are literal only.
The cost to National would be prohibitive.
NZ has unenviable history/histrionics in coalition agreements with National.
Hopefully the Elections in 2008 will involve some integrity.

Anonymous said...

Misplaced apostrophe above. Should read Peters' anti-National rantings.
Any cost of coalition would be acceptable to Labour. Peters to become Prime Minister at Clark's retirement in 2009/2010?

NX said...

Just looking @ Roy Morgan graph - John Key's been ahead of Labour for the entire time he's been leader. Which is a year this week!
Labour's recovery in the last poll was very short lived.

And I hate to say it, but I agree with Anonymous. Winston First seems to be aligning himself pretty heavily with Labour.
I reckon Winston's a gonna next election. The come back kids is now a geriatric.

Inventory2 said...

Agree with your comments about Winston nx - short of having an electorate "gifted" to him by Labour, NZ First is on track for a hiding next year. As I said above, I think this is a one-off blip for NZ First, which won't be sustained, especially once their support for the EFB is publicised.

Anonymous said...

Why ,inventory2, do you think Peters is unlikely to be "gifted" a seat by Labour?

We're talking solidarity here.

What sort of wake up call do people need?

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately,nx, on election day there is no box to tick for Prime Minister.

The choice is between something for nothing for the battler, or tax cuts for the rich.

Inventory2 said...

Anonymous - I haven't excluded that possibility. I believe that if NZ First is polling poorly midway through next year, Helen Clark will make sure that Winston wins an electorate seat, with Labour's collusion and support.

Anonymous said...

And not just Winston.

Anonymous said...

This is why the gagging legislation is so important.

Inventory2 said...

I live in hope that the voters of Ohariu-Belmont will have tired of Peter Dunne and his "politics of many colours" by the next election. Sure, he has been a popular and respected electorate MP, but he will also be guilty of having supported the most insidious and draconian piece of government legislation for many years.

Anonymous said...

He only has to get more votes than the National candidate.

That could be organised, could it not?

nx said...

I'd almost rather see a Labour candidate win Ohariu-Belmont (almost). The MP for Ohariu went spare @ Mark Sainsbury on election '05 & then tried to introduce a code of conduct for MPs. The man blows with the wind.

Anonymous said...

If you listened to the second reading debate on the EFB this afternoon you might assume Ohariu-Belmont is a Dunne deal.

Inventory2 said...

A Dunne deal has been Dunne you reckon. Somehow, I reckon the electors of Ohariu-Belmont will remember the deals that Peter has Dunne, and they may not remember them fondly. It wouldn't worry me if either Labour or National took this key seat, and whatever the outcome, if Dunne is defeated, that will be the end of United Future.