Five polls can't be wrong

The NZ Herald-Digipoll is out this morning, and it completes the bad news for Labour - here's the story: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/story.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10507022

In short: National 52.1% (up 2); Labour 37.2% (down 2.1)
Key 48%; Clark 45%

Taken in isolation, this would be unsettling for Labour. But add in the Roy Morgan, One News, 3News and Fairfax polls, and surely Labour will be very worried. So let's look at the big picture. Remember, this period started with Labour on a roll, and Key stumbling a little, and ended with Labour's president being exposed as a liar, and the economy going south. Here's what all the polls are saying for April:

One News: National 54%; Labour 35%
3News: National 48%; Labour 38%
Roy Morgan: National 50%; Labour 35.5%
Fairfax: National 52%; Labour 34%
NZ Herald National 52.1%; Labour 37.2%

AVERAGES: National 51.2%; Labour 35.9% - Average difference 13.1 points

The Greens are the only others to be featuring above the 5% threshhold. However, as an increasing body of scientific evidence debunks global warming, and food prices push through the roof as a consequence of the mad rush towards biofuels (the credibility and viability of which are now under attack), they may struggle to stay there, and for the first time in five elections, we may avoid another farcical MMP outcome where the tail wags the dog.

In the meantime, if Labour isn't doing some serious soul-searching, it ought to be. Denigrating John Key is not working; if anything, it will do nothing more than grow the perception that the Labour Party is out of touch with the realities facing "ordinary" New Zealanders on a daily basis.