Is it a bird? Is it a plane? Is it a rogue poll? Or is the left going to storm to victory in four week's time? It's hard to know just what the Roy Morgan poll is saying. I can't put my finger on anything (even TranzRail shares) that could cause a party to lose 20% of its support in three weeks. Meanwhile, Labour remains pretty static.
The Morgan poll is totally out of step with the One News poll of a week ago, and even with the 3News poll (the PM's personal favourite - until today!) from the week before. Whatever, it's game on, and may the best man win.
8 comments:
But did you see the 3News poll as well.
That has the poll lead halving to 6Now its 45-39.
Hunky Dunky was most excited
What to make of it. Nothing.
RM polls are rogues in my view. The last one was also out of step with the other polls. They must be using different methodology.
It concerns me that about the only chap not taking this poll badly is Adolf at No Minister.
Chin up everyone. Otherwise the lefties will feel there is no conviction that National and ACT can secure a centre right government after this election. And the moment they sense that, they will be in for the kill as only the socialists can.
showmethetaxcut
By itself, you could argue that Roy Morgan was a rogue.
Now, I've see the Tv3 poll, I am getting concerned.
But as I have read elsewhere it should knock any complacency out of the Nats.
Colin Espiner says 2 big polls are due on Sunday.
I was expecting Herald and Fairfax soon, so maybe its them.
I daren't go near The Standard tonight!
Hi Inventory, let me run some numbers past you.
Pure speculation with a dash is mischief..
RoyMorgan poll #4327 had 923 interviews where a decision was recorded.
The interviews were spread over 13 days conducted in the evenings.
Allow say 2 hours each day of the week (7:00 to 9:00pm) available for interviews.
The questions asked would include an introduction and an attempt to ascertain whether
the respondant was eligible to vote by say age and nationality and whatever is required.
The purposful question following that is supposed to be “If an election were held today
which party would receive your party vote?”.
There are obviously a further question that asks “Generally speaking, do you feel that
things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are
seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Any other communication may be common courtesy, about the League, about the weather,
or about introducing bias. Heh!
I trust that all questions and answers are recorded and spot checked occasionally.
I assume that each interview would require at least 3 minutes and that making a useful
connection could easily double that time.
So we get 13 days of 2 hours gives 1560 active minutes divided by 6 minutes for each
interview so a single interviewer could get data from +or- 260 NZ voters in poll #4327.
Also RoyMogan needs 923 voters. That means they need 3.55 interviewers in this poll.
Well obviously they will have a team and there will be some interchange but the squad
may be as few as 5 or 6 regulars.
Now polling results close to an election have a special currency, or is that currancy?
I am distantly reminded of the quote "What ever it takes!". Where did that quote come from?
Anyway I don't know whether the interviews are conducted in NZ or from Australia, but I am
quite sure that they could be tracked down.
Now why would anyone want to do that.??
IV2
You should not go near the Standard anyway.
Just the Labour idiots talking to one another.
showmethetaxcut
But do go and try to moderate Jafapete's upbeat attitude this evening.
showmethetaxcut
Aw showmethetaxcut, that's not very charitable. I've been quite happy to watch you guys count chickens for months and months (except when directly provked as this Murray discovered the other day). Allow me at least a day or two of joy.
Even should you win, it's only because the Nats have been pretending to be the same as us!
Post a Comment