It's hard to se any other result than an All Black victory tonight, and because we may not get to watch the match as we're going out, we're going to take another tack.
Has Australia been punching above its weight in rugby all these years? We reckon that could well be the case. Australian rugby has an issue with depth. When the Western Force joined the Super 14, we reckoned that could actually harm Australian rugby, with the talent pool having to be spread an additional 33%. What we're seeing now in recruitment for the new Melbourne team for next year is the talent pool being further diluted, to the point where Melbourne will have a decidedly Kiwi flavour about it.
We reckon that the bottom line is this; Australia has a very good first fifteen, even a first 22. But drop down a level, and the quality of player drops away markedly. Stirling Mortlock is a world-class centre who's broken our hearts far too often. Lose him, and the team suffers a significant blow.
You could argue that the same applies to us, and in the case of Dan Carter and Richie McCaw, you'd be right. But suddenly, the All Blacks have depth in positions where we've been lacking in the last few years; fullback, wing, midfield, lock and prop especially. That's really heartening. And we reckon that's a significant factor in why the All Blacks should go nine straight against Australia tonight, and give Robbie Deans a special homecoming gift; joint ownership of the Wallabies worst-ever record against New Zealand.
Meanwhile, we're doing the dinner and show thing tonight; what chance of finding an eatery where the rugby's on a big screen - any suggestions folks?
6 comments:
Complacency in the All Black camp is probably the only factor which will give Australia a chance and it has happened before.
I remember the team of, I think 1972. Labelled the `Awful Aussies' everyone they played beat them or almost did - including losses in the first two tests. Come the final test and they won comfortably.
One thing the Aussies can do is win away from home - they have proved it in the past.
I guess the thing kiwis never quite get is to an Aussie, rugby is very small beer indeed.
In terms of popularity for male dominated sports you'll find rugby rates after Aussie Rules, League, Cricket and Soccer.
In other words, the average Aussie doesn't give a fuck.
Rugby on a big screen in Melbourne? I don't rate your chances.
@anon. Aussies always pretend to not give a fuck about anything they're not winning at...they'd be making a huge song and dance if they were on a record winning streak...
THe lack of depth in Aus rugby is not the disaster it is in other leading rugby nations as their Psyche compensates with the never say die, come on we can do it lads attitude displayed in war and sport. That is why liedown sally was seen as such a big deal, it was just so "unaustralian".
That is not to say the mystique is never vulnerable, sometimes as with sally it can manifest, Kim Hughes, Underarm Trevor, an odd swimmer and other aberations. Most Australians display an "unwillingness to lose" that bring the superhuman to the fore too often for it to be ignored.
We talk about a wounded Bok being dangerous, I see that to result in thuggery whereas a wounded Aussie is going to just grow another leg. Gregan's Wilson Tackle, Cornelson's 4 tries, some of Leighton Hewitt's victories of energy over superior skill sets. Sometimes you have to literally kill them to stop them and don't think that with a couple of ref's errors a bounce or two of the ball accompanied with an out of their skin performances by a couple of key players a win is impossible and it will be when it is least expected.
I have witnessed it too often.
Hmmmm.....they have won 2 RWC's.
@Anonymous, when I was in Sydney for my company's national conference the week before the Melbourne test, there was plenty of interest in the upcoming match. Especially from the staff from offices in rural NSW and Queensland.
Of course once I got back to Melbourne, Union is well down the list as you say.
@ James, The Dickens on Collins Street has all the tests on the big screen each week if you are looking. I'll be there in an hour or two!
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