Phil; nice guy, but can't win.

Poor Phil. The Chris Carter "Phil's a nice guy, but he won't win" sting seems to have gained traction. The Herald reports:

Most voters don't think Labour can win the next election whether or not Phil Goff stays as leader, an opinion poll has shown.

Tonight's TV3 survey followed Labour MP Chris Carter's attack on Mr Goff, when he said "Phil Goff is a very nice guy but he's just not going to win".

It asked voters whether Mr Carter was right, and 42 per cent said he was. A further 32 per cent said Labour can't win no matter who the leader is.

Worse still, even Phil's own people, Labour Party supporters aren't optimistic, and Green Party supporters are even more pessimistic about Phil's prospects - read on:

The poll showed 33 per cent of those identifying themselves as Labour supporters didn't think Mr Goff could win next year's election and 54 per cent of Green Party supporters had the same view.

And Phil's response? He states the obvious:

Mr Goff said the poll showed Labour was the underdog.

Goodness Phil; we'd never have guessed! But this poll really is just another nightmare for the hapless Phil Goff. To govern, Labour will need the Greens, but more than half of Green voters don't rate the current Labour leader.

This poll is just another gentle tug at the rug upon which Phil Goff is standing, but it's a significant one nonetheless. It's a week and a night since Chris Carter's bizarre stunt with the anonymous letter, but now the wider public are commenting on Goff's leadership credentials or the lack thereof. Before Carter started dropping off his unsigned letters, such speculation was largely the preserve of political junkies and insiders. Carter's campaign has at least succeeded on that level. Right at the moment, three of the allegations Carter made in his letter have proven correct.

The die is cast, and the Labour Party has a choice to make. It can either go to the polls in 2011 with a leader who's a nice guy, but no show of winning, or it can try and stem the bleeding. We have no idea which way the dice will roll; neither, we suspect does Phil Goff.