An early election, Mr Key? The thought of going to the polls early must have flitted across Prime Minister John Key's mind more than once in the past few days, and not just because it would put the ACT Party out of its misery.There is nothing a government hates more than being dragged down by minor party shenanigans and sideshows.
As disgraced MP David Garrett spent yet another day fleeing the media at one airport after another, in between abruptly announcing his resignation – so abrupt that even his leader and ACT staffers had to scramble to keep up – the Maori Party's Hone Harawira continued to redefine the phrase "maverick MP" by calling a press conference to denounce the Government's foreshore and seabed legislation.
Just two short weeks after the Canterbury earthquake, it looked uncomfortably like Nero fiddling while Rome burned.
And with Mr Garrett now gone, though hardly forgotten, ACT's problems are barely beginning.
From where we are sitting, there is little doubt that this week's goings-on in the corridors of power have damaged the grip on power that the John Key-led government enjoys. The Act party has suffered its second implosion in just a few weeks. There must now be serious doubts as to Act's ability to survive beyond the 2011 election, and indeed, on Rodney Hide's ability to survive UNTIL the 2011 election.
On the other hand, whither now for the Maori Party? Does it even have a reason to exist once the Foreshore and Seabed Act has been repealed, and the Marine and Coastal Areas Bill is passed into law, with or without Hone Harawira's support? We can't help but wonder whether the Maori Party has run its course. Were Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia to decide that their work was done, who would lead the party? Harawira? Te Ururoa Flavell? Or possibly Rahui Katene, the MP who went in to bat for the Mongrel Mob family rightly evicted from a Christchurch welfare centre last week? None inspires confidence.
And so we wonder whether John Key might decide to strike while the iron is hot. Labour is in disarray, and reportedly broke. NZ First really only exits in the person of Winston Peters, is is broke as well. The Greens have lost Jeanette Fitzsimons and Sue Bradford, and another of their slightly more credible MP's (note the use of the word "slightly"!) Sue Kedgely has announced her intention to stand aside. There's a dearth of experience there. Jim Anderton has already announced his intention to retire, whilst Peter Dunne will go whichever way the wind blows.
There's an opportunity then for a good, old-fashioned two-party contest, and it's one that we feel confident that Key would win. Would it not be a good thing, after all the shenanigans we have witnessed under MMP to see a stable, one-party government? We reckon that it would.
There's another positive to come out of all of this, in our ever-humble opinion. The pitfalls of MMP have again been exposed in the last 24 hours. It beggars belief that an MP elected on his party's ticket can even consider jumping out of the party waka and continuing as an independant. At least Chris Carter has a mandate from the good folk of Te Atatu; David Garrett has no such mandate, and MUST resign as an MP. The MMP system which permits this scenario to be contemplated must be turfed out.
Tracy Watkins has a lot more to say, and her piece is well worth a read in its totality. We've majored in on one aspect of it, and as always, we'd be interested to hear what you think, so don't be shy!
7 comments:
Of course!
FPP!
So fresh!
So modern!
So right!
FPP? Not necessarily Robert. But I'm sure that even you would agree that yesterday exposed another major flaw in MMP. Does Garrett, in your opinion, have a mandate to stay on as an independant List MP? I don't believe that he does.
If there's a better alternative out there than MMP, then let's consider it.
Yesterday exposed another major flaw in ACT Invent.
And in Hide.
And in Key's judgement.
It all looks shoddy and that's putting it politely.
Using the ugliness that we see coming from the ACT party and it's shonkey MPs is no excuse to attack MMP, but you've seized on it like a wee pup.
Robert - go back through the Keeping Stock archives, and you will see that our opposition to MMP has been consistent.
However I do agree with you about Act. Unless Hide is sacrificed, Act is finished.
The more the simpering lefty media bangs on about Act, the more I am determined to vote for them. There is no other option, you can partake of John Key's "Dead Rat Surprise" I certainly won't.
I'll judge Rodney on his work to implement the Auckland unification and I judge DG on his work as an MP which has been outstanding by all accounts - your mayor mentioned the other day that Garrett had been the only member to actually visit Wanganui in relation to the gang patch legislation. That commitment to the job shames the rest of the seat-earners we send to Wellington.
On ya James!
Staunch to the bitter end!
I doubt very much that Key will call an early election. ACT will certainly limp along to the end of the term, with or without Hide.
Key has much to gain by stretching things out for another year. The Supercity will be bedded in and Auckland will not have been destroyed, Christchurch will be well on the way to a rapid rebuild. The GST increase will have been forgotten and the tax cuts will be through. There is a reasonable chance that unemployment will have dropped significantly (possibly as a knock-on from the earthquake). All of this suggests that the optimal time for an election will still be next year.
There is even the small possibility that ACT may have its stuff back together by that time. And Hone Harawira may announce his retirement (ring out those bells!)
Key is very much an MMP politician. He likes having the ability to play one minor party off against another and the concessions he has to make for that privilege are relatively small. Expect a similar look to the next government unless ACT dies. And the very fact that ACTs death may force him to deal with New Zealand First will make Key work VERY hard to ensure ACTs survival.
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