Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Where does Phil go now?

Of all the political polls released in the last few months, one has been out of step. The Roy Morgan poll was showing higher numbers for Labour, and lower numbers for National than wither the One News or 3News iterations.. The important word in that sentence is, of course "was".

Roy Morgan issued its latest poll on Friday, after polling between the 4th and the 17th of October. All three regular polls now tell a similar story. According to Roy Morgan, if an election had been held during the polling period, John Key's National government would have romped home. National has risen 2.5 percentage points to 55% support, whilst Labour has dropped 3.5 points to just 33%.

This ought to have been a period when Labour solidified the gains it had made in the previous Roy Morgan poll. GST went up, and Phil Goff announced Labour's alternative tax policy, including removing GST from fresh fruit and vegetables. Towards the end of the polling period, Labour held its conference, where it unveiled its Great Leap to the Left. It's all been for nought, it would seem.

We're wondering if this poll will be the final nail in the casket of Phil Goff's leadership. Labour trails National by 23 percentage points just a year out from the election. And imagine what the poll might have been like had polling been done in the last ten days, with secondary school teachers striking as exams loom, and with a few bolshie actors and the CTU boycotting Sir Peter Jackson's pride and joy!

We reckon that it's now or never for Labour if they are going to replace Phil Goff before the 2011 election. And we can't help but note that David Cunliffe seemed to be about as self-satisfied as Craig Foss's peacock of the same name while he was asking the first Question of the Day. Is Cunners Labour's leader-in-waiting? Perhaps Phil Goff will be seeking out Kevin Rudd whilst he is over in Australia for some advice on life after a leadership coup!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

the honeymoon waltzs on....

it will be awhile before the plebs realise that the tax cuts scamed most of them and that gst plus all the other rising living costs are sucking them under... NACT is good at spinning but reality is a house of cards... you can only fudge the figures for so long eh?

Ms Claus.

Anonymous said...

hey is it possible that you pull your recent posts box up higher in the blog? It makes my scroll finger ache...

Inventory2 said...

@ Anon #2 - Anything is possible ... unless your name's Phil!

Doug said...

Phil Goff leaves New Zealand and not a peep from him regarding the Hobbit, freighted to upset Andrew Little and the Unions. Who is in charge of Labour again?

Anonymous said...

Labour is just the political wing of the economic terrorists, the unions. Neither Labour nor Unions has a place in a civilised society like New Zealand.

Key (or Brownlee) should just and all unions and Labour and Greens to the list of proscribed organisations in the Prevention of Terrorism act.

Problem solved.