Of all the political polls released in the last few months, one has been out of step. The Roy Morgan poll was showing higher numbers for Labour, and lower numbers for National than wither the One News or 3News iterations.. The important word in that sentence is, of course "was".
Roy Morgan issued its latest poll on Friday, after polling between the 4th and the 17th of October. All three regular polls now tell a similar story. According to Roy Morgan, if an election had been held during the polling period, John Key's National government would have romped home. National has risen 2.5 percentage points to 55% support, whilst Labour has dropped 3.5 points to just 33%.
This ought to have been a period when Labour solidified the gains it had made in the previous Roy Morgan poll. GST went up, and Phil Goff announced Labour's alternative tax policy, including removing GST from fresh fruit and vegetables. Towards the end of the polling period, Labour held its conference, where it unveiled its Great Leap to the Left. It's all been for nought, it would seem.
We're wondering if this poll will be the final nail in the casket of Phil Goff's leadership. Labour trails National by 23 percentage points just a year out from the election. And imagine what the poll might have been like had polling been done in the last ten days, with secondary school teachers striking as exams loom, and with a few bolshie actors and the CTU boycotting Sir Peter Jackson's pride and joy!
We reckon that it's now or never for Labour if they are going to replace Phil Goff before the 2011 election. And we can't help but note that David Cunliffe seemed to be about as self-satisfied as Craig Foss's peacock of the same name while he was asking the first Question of the Day. Is Cunners Labour's leader-in-waiting? Perhaps Phil Goff will be seeking out Kevin Rudd whilst he is over in Australia for some advice on life after a leadership coup!