THE COUNTRY'S next prime minister could be decided by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
A new poll has cast Peters as kingmaker. The 65-year-old left parliament after 30 years as an MP when he lost in Tauranga to Simon Bridges and New Zealand First failed to pass the 5% party list MP threshold in the last election.
The Horizon poll of almost 2000 intending voters shows the often-controversial MP could have the power to decide whether National's John Key or Labour's Phil Goff leads the country after the 2011 elections.
In 2008 New Zealand First captured just over 4% of the vote, but the Horizon poll, conducted from November 16-22, shows the party is back in the game with 6% support.
In the same poll National recorded 34.7% support, Labour 28.3%, the Greens 7.9%, Act 2.6%, the Maori Party 1.2%, Jim Anderton's Progressives 1.2%, United Future 0.2% and other parties 1.6%.
We're not going to get too worried about this poll just yet, as it is so far out of step with other polls, even allowing for its rather different methodology. We do hope however that it doesn't give Winston Peters momentum leading into election year. We'd also question the accuracy of a poll that gives Jim Anderton's Progressive Party 1.2% of the vote when Jim Anderton is retiring, the party has ceased to exist in everything but name, and Anderton himself has instructed his supporters to party-vote Labour in 2011!
Interestingly, the Labour Party bloc-voted against the motion to censure; whether or not that had anything to do with Labour needing NZ First's votes to pass its ETS before the 49th Parliament rose is open to speculation. But how else should NZ First's support be reconciled with Peter Brown's less-than-effusive speech in the Third Reading debate in September 2008 when he said:
New Zealand First will support this legislation tonight. We will support the third readings. We say to the Minister, with due respect, that we think this is a move in the right direction. It is not completely right. There will need to be some amendments. I will not go as far as David Carter did when he said that this is not enduring legislation, and give the impression that it will fall over in a matter of months. I do not believe that. But I believe it will have to be addressed on a number of occasions to get it right, and I know that before agriculture comes in, before transport comes in, there will be quite some discussion. It will have to go through Parliament and get the seal of approval. In essence, New Zealand First is supporting this legislation because it has the framework there.
So we pose this question: if it was a choice between Peters and another three years on the Opposition benches, what way do you think Phil Goff would roll? Does he have the “whatever it takes” mentality of the former Labour leader, or does Peters represent a line in the sand which he will not cross. John Key was unequivocal about Peters prior to the 2008 election. Whither goest thou Phil?
6 comments:
Must be a quiet news day for the SST. They're just out to sell papers with such rubbish. It would mean the death of MMP forever though, which I would be overjoyed about.
Goff or Key? Who cares, they're almost exactly the same, and so are the organisations that they dictate to.
Quite so Anon; the mere possibility of Peters returning to Parliament should be enough to have the punters deserting MMP in droves, and looking for an alternative proportional system.
I stand by what I wrote in Kiwiblog earlier today:
Go on John Key, keep taxing New Zealanders more, maintain incompetent and dishonest ministers (e.g., Nick Smith and the recently dismissed Pansy Wong), continue bending over to the racist Maori Party, stick to delay making the hard decisions required to reactivate the NZ economy, procrastinate in reforming the welfare state, insist in leading the appeasing branch within your own party, and you will make possible and be directly responsible for the return of the venal Winston Peters.
Parliament and NZ is a much more civilised and nicer place without Peters. The mere hint of him getting anywhere near the halls of power is enough proof that MMP should be dumped immediately and replaced with a better form of voting. He is a corrosive twisted little man who is not and will never be missed.
'Whither...?'
No need to raise the question, IV2. Goof is a politician and will jump at the chance to regain power by whatever means. Of course he will go with Lazarus if it gives control.
I look forward to him being in play to put the left-right back on track.
Quite so PM; and right on cue this morning, the Goff-father has announced this morning that he will not rule out working with the Superannuitant from St Mary's Bay.
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