The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped 19 points to 133.5 with 59.5% (up 10%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 26% (down 9%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction.’
At the same time support for John Key’s National-led Government is up 1% to 54.5%. Support for Prime Minister Key’s National Party is 52.5% (up 3.5%), the Maori Party 1.5% (down 1.5%), and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1%).
Support for Opposition Parties is down 1% to 45.5% — Labour Party 32.5% (down 2.5%), Greens 8%, (unchanged), New Zealand First 4% (up 1%), Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%) and others 0.5% (unchanged).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.
Gary Morgan says:
“After a sharp fall in the immediate aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has rebounded strongly as attention turns to rebuilding Christchurch in the months ahead (133.5, up 19pts). Now 59.5% (up 10%) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction.’
“The National-led Government of Prime Minister John Key has also strengthened its lead (54.5%, up 1%) over the Opposition Parties (45.5%, down 1%) and the National Party (52.5%, up 3.5%) once again has a support of a clear majority of the electorate.”
We don't imagine that this poll will bring much comfort to Phil Goff this morning. Nor, we expect, will it bring any comfort at all to the MP's in Labour's caucus (presumably from Phil Goff's list of 17) who told 3News that Goff had broken caucus' rules by unilaterally ruling out a post-election allinace with Hone Harawira when caucus had voted that all options would be considered.
And in further bad news for Labour, we've just seen a Westpac economist on AMP Business report on a survey that the bank did on last year's tax cuts. Labour's meme that the tax cuts have left the vast majority of New Zealanders worse off is not supported by Westpac's findings; 30% of New Zealanders surveyed thought they were worse off, 40% thought the cuts were neutral (which was the government's aim), and 30% reckoned they were better off.
Is Phil Goff going to survive as Labour leader until the election? Given the level of discontent in Labour's caucus, we reckon that's a line-ball call at the moment, and if change is to happen, it has to happen soon. Perhaps that explains Maryan Street's performance in the House yesterday ...