We heard the headline at the start of last night's 3News bulletin; their latest poll was "a shocker" for Labour. They weren't wrong.
It hasn't taken long for other media to pick up on the story. Both the Herald and Stuff are reporting on the 3News poll this morning, and it's not hard to see why. If the poll's findings were projected across a general election, the Labour Party would be annihilated; it's as simple as that.
The election is just seven months away, and Labour languishes at 27.1% support, down 3.8 points, and trailling National by over 30 percentage points. On the basis of last night's results, more than 20% of Labour's caucus would join the ranks of the unemployed.
Phil Goff hasn't fared any better. His "my handling of the Darren Hughes affair has strengthened my leadership" line is blown out of the water. Just 6.8% of respondents (68/1000) want Goff as Prime Minister, compared with John Key's rating of 52.4%.
Labour's front bench may be united behind Goff, but that is not where the chattering will come from. There are now around 10 Labour MP's facing very uncertain futures, and all must now realise that Labour is not going to win this election under Phil Goff's leadership. The prospect of wholesale unemployment may now be the catalyst for change.
Will Phil Goff survive the week? He may be saved by the fact that Parliament is in recess until 3rd May. But we reckon that any reprieve is likely to be temporary at best; 3News sealed Phil Goff's fate at 6pm last night.
UPDATE: Labour MUST be worried; over at The Standard, "Eddie" (thought by some to be a Labour Party staffer) is talking up Winston Peters' chances. Labour of course voted NOT to censure Peters for knowingly misleading Parliament shortly before the 2008 election, and it seems as though Labour will embrace Peters in 2011 if that is the price of power. That may help to explain Labour's current woes.
11 comments:
thank goodness Penny not so isn't on the blog
Please Jabba; don't tempt fate!
It's about integrity and Labour only appeals to those who have none.
When people such as the clowns at the standard are talking up Winston, you have to think that Labor are seriously worried about their prospects.
Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
And I2 let us hope that she does not "discover" you.
If you don't mind me saying so, this is superficial.
Labour was always going to struggle winning this election. History is against them doing so. Goff would have known this in 2008. His job is just to hold the party together and get the best result. I doubt Eddie is that worried - he? wouldn't want 27%, but if he's a political person he? would realise the nigh impossible job.
What the current polling does do though is serously threaten the National Party and its ability to govern going forward.
I'll leave it to you to figure out how. And maybe you won't be crowing when you've figured it out!
Interesting comment Gooner. Have you caught up with today's news that National is not going to push too hard in Epsom, and concentrate on securing the party vote? Does that address some of your concerns?
Key is essentially giving Act a free pass back into Parliament; can Act get itself sufficiently together to give Rodney some company?
It doesn't matter if Key gives a free pass or not IV2, anything over 48-49% and the Nats don't need to vote for Hide in Epsom.
That is National's probalem, as much as ACT's.
I should add that I am beginning to wonder whether Labour's strategy is to give National a huge mandate to knock ACT out for good.
Someone pointed that out over @ Farrar's place today and that commenter was right: Politics is a long-term game and that may well be Labour's long-term strategy.
You could be right Gooner, but Key's announcement today suggests that he's not going to let that happen.
Oh Gooner, don't be ridiculous.
An ACT strategy is the last thing on Labour's mind.
You are just lamenting the fact that your party is irrelevant and in decline and it hurts. It really hurts.
Not true smttc. If it were I would say so.
Gooner
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