The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government is at 57.5% (up 1.5%). Support for Key’s National Party is 53% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2% (unchanged), ACT NZ 2% (up 1%) and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for Opposition Parties is at 42.5% (down 1.5%) — Labour Party 28% (down 3%), Greens 10%, (up 2.5%), New Zealand First 3% (down 1.5%), Progressive Party 0.5% (unchanged) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.
Now it would be remiss of us not to point out that poll was taken BEFORE last week's Budget, but after changes to KiwiSaver, Working for Families and Student Loans had been foreshadowed by John Key. But the continued collapse of Labour's vote as seen in the chart below must be deeply troubling to Phil Goff and his new campaign manager Trevor Mallard.
Interestingly though, the timeframe during which this poll was taken coincided with Labour's attacks on John Key over his use of helicopters, his wealth, his protection by the DPS, his holidays in Hawaii, BMW's and donations to the National Party. As we predicted at the time of the DPS "exclusive" (leaked to One News by the Goffice), the smears have backfired, and National gets more popular at Labour's expense.
We can't help but note a surge in support for the Greens as well to 10%, also at Labour's expense. With the Greens now with 18 percentage points of Labour, it would only take a ten point swing from one to the other to see Russel Norman and Metiria Turei become Co-Leaders of the Opposition. Russel Norman was far more impressive than Phil Goff in his response to the Budget last week, and it's not far off the point where it's not inconceivable that the Greens could be the main opposition party after the election.
Labour cannot help but be worried by this poll. It's only six months and two days until we go to the polls. If Labour does not get a significant post-election bounce, the party is electoral toast, and campaign manager Trevor Mallard is likely to be holding lots of meetings with MP's who are worried about their futures post-26/11/2011. Phil Goff's leadership is still far from secure.