Roy Morgan reported again yesterday, and as you will see from the graph below, the game HAS changed for Labour, but not in the way that Phil Goff was hoping. In short there's been a 2% swap between the two major parties; National up two to 52% and Labour down two to 31.5%. Gary Morgan sums it up succuinctly:
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for Prime Minister John Key’s National-led Government is at 57.5% (up 2.5%). Support for Key’s National Party is 52% (up 3%), ACT NZ 2% (down 1%), the Maori Party 3% (up 0.5%), and United Future 0.5% (unchanged).
Support for Opposition Parties is at 42.5% (down 2.5%) — Labour Party 31.5% (down 2%), Greens 7.5% (unchanged), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 0.5%), Mana Party 0.5% and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would easily be returned to Government.
This is bad news for the Labour Party, with the General Election now less than four months away. And it's merely confirmation of the bad news delivered by the other polls. Let's sum up the ones released in July (counting the latest Roy Morgan):
- Herald Digipoll: National 51.2%; Labour 36.1 % - difference: 15.1%
- 3News poll: National 55.1%; Labour 29.9% - difference: 25.2%
- One News poll: National National 53%; Labour 27% - difference 27%
- Fairfax poll: National 56%; Labour 29% - difference 27%
- Roy Morgan poll: National 52% - Labour 31.5% - difference 20.5%
Looking at all those recent polls, not just any one in isolation, must be scary for the Labour strategy team. It must be scary too for those on the lower reaches of Labour's party list, faced with the spectre of unemployment post November. If change is to come at the top, the momentum for that change will come from the bottom.
7 comments:
Headline 'Brain drain' continues for National.
How can this be? John promised the opposite?
One in eight New Zealanders is still considering quitting the country long term, despite National successfully campaigning on a promise to reverse the "brain drain".
And a new poll shows a fifth of 18 to 30-year-olds are threatening to leave in search of a better life overseas.
In the last two general elections National campaigned on its ability to keep Kiwis here. Its billboards read "wave goodbye to higher taxes not your loved ones" and promised to have a plan for higher wages and lower taxes.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/polls/5357111/Brain-drain-continues-for-National
Anon - You conveniently overlook the damage done between 1999 and 2008.
Are you too insecure to comment on what's happening now?
Should we all pretend like you are that its not happening. Are your fingers in your ears pdm?
anon - I have no doubt that there are young people moving to Australia. This is largely due to the waste of the good years after the millenium by Helen Clark and Michael Cullen and no doubt will continue in the short term.
It will take this National led government at least another term to turn the country round mainly due to the fact that there is no Sir Roger Douglas or Ruth Richardson to lead the way.
Fingers so deep in ears there is danger of harming brain.
Brain?
Take a look at the numbers Anon; Labour is history for 2011. As pdm noted, Labour squandered the best economic conditions since my childhood in the late 50's/early 60's. One only has to refer back to the PREFU from just before the 2008 election to realise what a hospital pass Clark and Cullen threw the Nats. The over-priced buy-back of Kiwirail was the final insult.
Are those your fingers in your ears Inventory2 or pdms?
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