For three years, Phil Goff has tirelessly pushed his boulder Sisyphus-like up the hill, only for it to roll back down each time. Now, however, the rock may have slid down the hill one too many times.
Over the past couple of weeks, cracks have appeared in Labour's united front, giving National added reason to believe it can secure the electoral equivalent of El Dorado - winning enough seats in an MMP election to govern alone.
Labour's legendary self-discipline seems to be crumbling under the relentless pressure of bad polls.
Witness the unfortunate outburst from Dunedin South backbencher Clare Curran, flaying the Greens for having the temerity to encroach on territory which apparently belongs to Labour as of right.
Of more serious note, some senior Labour MPs clearly think November's election is a foregone conclusion, and are now focusing on what happens afterwards leadership-wise, positioning themselves accordingly.
The net effect of this is to leave Phil Goff marooned exactly where National wants him - in an ineffectual limbo with his leadership destabilised, but not so much that he must be removed before the election.
That last paragraph really nails it; Phil Goff is in a no-win position. Even though Labour's CGT "game-changer" policy was reproted by 3News this week as more popular that National's proposed partial asset sales, Labour trails by some distance in every poll that comes out, and Phil Goff's personal popularity is lower still.
Shane Jones has been at the forefront of the post-election wrangling. Gotcha yesterday featured a video of Jones' appearance on Maori Television earlier this week where what he didn;t say was more telling than what he did say. Of more interest though was John Tamihere's emphatic confirmation of the view that Phil Goff did indeed offer to resign. Given that Tamihere was not at the meeting, one can't help but wonder who's been talking out of school. Would Shane Jones be so openly disloyal to his leader? Or does someone else have Tamihere's ear? Jones' media tour continues this morning with an interview with Duncan Garner on The Nation on TV3.
Armstrong continues on this theme:
Most damaging has been the leaking of suggestions that Goff offered to resign as leader during a recent meeting of Labour's front-bench MPs.
What Goff apparently said was that he had put everything into the job for the past three years, and anyone who wasn't happy with his performance should stick their hand up. No one did.
The only motive for the leak would be to undermine Goff before the election campaign to ensure he loses.
Blame is being levelled at those backing the post-election leadership aspirations of Labour's ultra-ambitious finance spokesman, David Cunliffe.
Worse, the leak was followed by a 3 News Reid Research poll which found that even among those intending to vote Labour, many do not believe Goff can win the election.
This really is devastating stuff for Goff, less than three months out from the election. Not only is he not considered capable of winning the election by a good proportion of his party's support base, but moves are already afoot to replace him after the election. Which begs the question; why wait until after?
There's quite a bit more to Armstrong's piece, and his historical comparisons are worth a read, but he's made his main point; there is a solid body within the Labour caucus that has seen the writing on the wall, and that has more interest in individual survival than the bigger picture. He concludes:
When the positioning going on within Labour is taken into account, what is happening is that the early stages of the 2014 election campaign are being played out before this year's one has started.
All rather bizarre, to say the least.
He's not wrong; it's bizarre indeed, and at the moment, it gets more bizarre with every Shane Jones television appearance. It's an interesting and very public game he's playing; at Phil Goff's expense.
11 comments:
It's quibbling but, that's what this 'Goff offered to resign' nonsense is all about...
"Most damaging has been the leaking of suggestions that Goff offered to resign as leader during a recent meeting of Labour's front-bench MPs.
What Goff apparently said was that he had put everything into the job for the past three years, and anyone who wasn't happy with his performance should stick their hand up. No one did.
Anyone who wasn't happy with his performance should stick their hand up.
That's it Inv2?
That's the earth-shattering, damning "Offering to resign' that's kept you excited for the past week.
That's pathetic. If Goff had glanced over his shoulder at the meeting, you'd be clamouring, 'Goff feels the cold steel of knives in his back!' and be repeating your claim over and over til you truly believed your own rhetoric.
Pay attention Robert; you must have missed this last Saturday:
An increasingly angry Labour leader Phil Goff is again facing leadership speculation after conflicting accounts over a meeting with some of his closest and most senior colleagues.
He furiously denied reports in political newsletter Trans-Tasman that he asked his frontbench MPs whether he should quit.
Several frontbench MPs backed Mr Goff, either describing the report as "bollocks" or insisting the discussion never took place. Others refused to comment.
But one senior Labour MP said the conversation did happen. "[Phil] did consult the front bench over whether he should go."
The reaction from MPs was mixed – some were "adamant that he shouldn't quit" while others were more muted. But no one said to Mr Goff that he should resign.
The source said Mr Goff raised the issue during a discussion about polling and said he was worried that, after battling for three years, he was still failing to get cut-through on policy. He also thought the media weren't interested in him.
It's pretty obvious now that the "senior Labour MP" referred to was none other than Shane Jones, who has been doing the media circuit this week. Jones is also the "senior Labour MP" quoted by Duncan Garner in stories about Labour's polling on 3News on Sunday/Monday. It will be interesting to hear what else he has to say to Garner in a few minutes...
Curran a "backbencher"? She's shadow communications minister...have I missed something?
All you do is cut and paste rumour and gossip. Whatever happened to that Whanganui councillor you were gossiping about last year that you pulled the post on mr ex-umpire with an anonymously hypocritical and unchristian motivation?
You lead a sad and desperate online fantasy.
No name = no integrity, just cowardice.
No proof = no truth, just tawdry gossip.
Grant Allan (UK), shouldn't that be Grant Allen (YUK)?
If you don't like what I2 writes don't fucking read it.
But Tinboy, I do like!
I love all the negative and nasty unchristian qualities in a person that leads them to obsessively and anonymously crusade against people who are prepared to transparently put themselves in the public eye using gossip and speculation to do so.
I thrive on reading it. Really aligns with the morals I espouse as a christian. And I find it therapeutic for my battle with depression to focus on the negative in someone I disagree with rather than seeing the person I worship as being a flawed human too.
That's why I come here. It's enlightening!!!!
Is it the same for all readers of this excellently researched and considered gossip?
@ Grant Allen; as a fellow sufferer of depression, and similarly flawed human being, I'm delighted that you view my musings as therapeutic. God does indeed move in mysterious ways!
Poor old socialists thinking if they keep doing the idiot thing somehow they will get a different outcome.
The only thing Goff can hope for now is that a "sympathy" vote will avoid his challenging the nadir of National Polling on election day secured by one Simon William English.
In a westminster Democracy which is the basis for our Government system, an essential participant is an effective and loyal opposition, something conspicuous by its absence, as they degenerate into a rabble lashing out at any and all that come into their decreasing orbit.
The only target now seems to be each other.
Criky "sticking their hand up", the cowards who won't face the reality of their situation are now too afraid to even look over the parapet with a periscope.
Grant Allen (UK) should cease visiting this blog for the good of his health.
Already he has taken on the same language and viewpoint as other unhappy readers.
His depression will quickly abate if he were to peruse some of the blogs which appeal to the smaller readerships on the left. They are much gentler on the mind(less).
What is really unusual about this election is that BOTH major parties are running a campaign that is more geared to 2014. Key has already stated that he will seek allies after the 2011 election despite the very real possibility he may be able to govern alone. Partial asset sales will be a vote loser now but, when they turn out not to be the fire-sales of the past, will be vote-neutral by 2014. Most of National's legislation of the past 3 years has not been directed at the recession, but at the recovery which, given the double dip nature of the global recession, will probably be kicking in nicely in 2014.
When the country is back in surplus, National will then tackle pensions and Key will resign -exactly as he has planned, most likely.
Regardless of leadership coup rumors, true or false, Goff will almost certainly be removed shortly after the drubbing Labour are going to get in November. This is a cold political fact, no matter what spin Robert tries to put on it
This blog is similar to the MSM (not just the fact it copies and pastes them the whole time). Very valid points and quality analysis:
http://pressthink.org/2011/08/why-political-coverage-is-broken/
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