Right; enough of the preamble; let's get down to it. The last poll for August (unless Roy Morgan reports today) has been released, and it is an absolute shocker for Labour. It's the Fairfax Media-Research International poll, and Tracy Watkins and Andrea Vance break it gently:
Voters appear to be deserting the Labour Party for the Greens as Phil Goff's election chances look increasingly hopeless.
The Greens have leapt to 11 per cent in today's Fairfax Media-Research International Poll – and their rise has come at the expense of Labour, which has slumped to 25.7 per cent.
With 86 days until the election, there are echoes of 2002 in the latest poll results.
That year National crashed to a disastrous 20.9 per cent vote on election night, with supporters panicked into voting strategically for the minor parties, particularly NZ First, after deciding Bill English had no hope of victory.
The Green Party's improved result in this poll shows the party may be benefiting from a shift in its position towards National. It had previously ruled out working with National in any sort of coalition deal.
The Greens now say that although a deal with National is "highly unlikely", they will not shut the door completely. But yesterday Green Party co-leader Russel Norman dismissed suggestions of tactical voting on the Left.
"Under MMP every vote counts ... people are feeling that they are voting for the Greens in a positive way."
The Greens will be over the moon with this result. They now only trail Labour by 14.7 percentage points. Two more months of 4 point swings from Labour to the Greens, and the unthinkable happens; the Greens become the major opposition party!
Someone will doubtless correct us if we have erred, but we reckon that this is probably Labour's worst poll result since the 2008 General Election. We recall that they slumped to 27% in July's One News poll, but we can't readily recall a lower poll rating than this for the Labour Party.
In the meantime, National's support has edged up another point to 57.1%, and could govern alone on these numbers quite easily. John Key of course has indicated that National will not govern alone, and that coalition partners will be sought no matter what the numbers say on election day.
And in the Preferred Prime Minister stakes it's just more of the same; read on:
Prime Minister John Key remains National's most potent weapon. He towers above Mr Goff in the preferred prime minister stakes, at 54.6 per cent to Mr Goff's 8.5 per cent. Mr Key appears to have cemented his popularity since the previous Fairfax-Research International poll a month ago, with the number of undecided voters down from 29.9 per cent to 22.5 per cent.
Phil Goff had to again defend his leadership yesterday. This time though, rather than being right-wing bloggers who are questioning him, it's hard-bitten political journalists. As Patrick Gower noted yesterday on 3News, the knives are coming out for Goff; from within. The late Sir Robert Muldoon used to say that a front-bench politician's biggest enemies were the ones beside and behind him, not the ones opposite, and that seems true for Phil Goff at present.
Anyway; those are the numbers; pleasing for National, fantastic for the Greens, and disastrous for Labour. Let the fun begin!
19 comments:
". The late Sir Robert Muldoon used to say that a front-bench politician's biggest enemies were the ones beside and behind him, not the ones opposite, and that seems true for Phil Goff at present."
Not true at all. It's the likes of you and your big brothers Farrar, Slater and Garner and their relentless character assassination of Phil Goff that's doing the damage. Brian Edwards is right - Phil Goff's performance isn't truly reflected in these results. What they show is the 'job' that's being done on him by the likes of those I've named.
On one hand I'm flattered that you think I have so much influence Robert, but on the other, I'm realistic (and modest) enough to realise that Phil Goff and Labour's downfall has little to do with me and everything to do with Labour.
You';re an intelligent bloke; take of your blinkers, and you'll find that the polls reflect the mood of the country. Until Labour and its acolytes (even those with a Green tint) stop blaming everyone else for Labour's problems and take ownership of them, Labour is history. As Idiot/Savant said yesterday (why didn't you quote HIM Robert; did his honesty not fit?):
Phil Goff's excuse for his latest round of poor polling? "People aren't focused on the issues". But before Labour hacks engage in another round of "blame the voters", I think we should ask: whose fault is that?
To point out the obvious, getting people to care about "the issues" so that they are energised and mobilised to vote is a core task of a political party. If people aren't focused on Labour's chosen issues, then that tells us that the Labour Party is doing a piss-poor job. Either they've chosen their issues badly, or they're communicating them poorly (and in particular, worse than the government). But either way, it is not the voters who are at fault, but the party. And blaming the voters for the party's failure just adds to the perception that Labour is arrogant.
As for what they can do about it, I think the answer is pretty clear: Labour needs to own its own shit. Stop making excuses, accept responsibility for failure, and lift their game. And if they don't, and a bunch of them are out of work come November 27, then they have no-one to blame but themselves.
Some on the Left get it; some don't. Which Camp are you in Robert?
Robert's in camp Mppnbat; population 1.
Oh bugger - where's the edit function?
That should be Camp Moonbat.
You shouldn't be flattered Inv2, smearing isn't admirable behaviour.
As for others who are saying that Goff is 'blaming the voters', that's not correct either. Goff said, "People aren't focussed on the issues." That's a statement of fact, not an accusation, in my view. People have had their attention focussed on the two leaders by media commentators of all stripes.
Btw - your criticism of Mallard for his 'not camp' comment is one of the lamest comments you've made for a long time. When he said to the media-hounds, 'look for the leaks down there' indicating the direction they should go, I immediately knew he meant the toilets. The foolish comment that he was referring to Jones' office made by the reporter was telling. I'm betting you jumped to the same conclusion, such is your tunnel vision and desire to injure Labour. You stated that you started Keeping Stock in response to some bill or other of Labour's. Your sole purpose here (aside from the sports section) is to undermine and injure the Labour Party. Why pretend otherwise? Given that you adore Key and National, you do very, very few posts on either. Your's is essentially an anti-Labour blog.
I have no objection to it being that way, nor would it matter if I did, but let's be honest about your objectives here Inv2.
This should interest you Inv2.
http://robertguyton.blogspot.com/2011/08/our-men-in-black-are-cheats.html
Ah Christoper! Those halcyon days you and I spent at Camp Mppnbat! Unforgettable. Remember the time you won the Spelling Bee!
Wasn't that a hoot, given your 'difficulties'!
Camp Mppnbat!
You yearn for those days again, I can tell (and as promised, I'll say nothing about the 'shaving cream incident' nudge nudge wink wink!)
Robert; you've got it wrong again; the comment about leaks was not the one I was referring to. It was Mallard's widely reported comment to a number of journalists:
"“I haven't been camp for a long time darling,” says Mr Mallard."
If you get the chance to hear a radio clip of it, you might notice a change from Mallard's normal tone. Add that to his unfortunate interjection on Christopher Finlayson, and you could easily form the impression that he has a low impression of gays. That may or may not be the case, but he's made a rod for his own back.
I don't have it wrong Inv2. I commented on both. Mallard's quip was an attempt at humour. He was asked about 'camp'. Did you miss the 'leaks' quip? Not like you to let a potential hit on a Labour politician slip by!
Inv says - "Robert you are an intelligent bloke"
That I think is very much umproven in fact most of what he writes indicates much the opposite.
"That I think is very much um...proven"
pdm - you crack me up!
bObby G's site is great. I just found out he is a pie fan. Not sure if Sue Kedgley will be happy to hear that
I fear that much of the spittle The Shining Whit spews here is a direct result of his ban at Kiwi Blog, of course as he is in denial over actions having unwanted out comes, so that will all be a mystery to him.
"Smearing isn't admirable behavior", who wudda thunk that.
To think that with say 3 % of the electorate indulging in the political blogs ( I admit a cherry picked figure) but whatever it is they would be divided in their political alliegance, that they can cause the massive rejection of Labour by those polled is just ludicrous. That said he is a Green, logic reality and sense don't rate
BTW has anyone else noticed when Guyton gets pwned he has a default humour position that wasn't in the slightest funny to anyone else.
We are just so fortunate he doesn't resort to name calling or smearing though.
has bObby G been banned from Kiwiblog?
I can neither confirm nor deny Jabba. I made mention of something along those lines once, and Robert was unimpressed with me. There may or may not be a story to tell, but if there is, Robert is the one to tell you.
@ jabba yes, as I understand it under his alias of Green fly and suspicions of others.
A person of many parts is shiny.
jabba - Farrar was unable to manage my contributions the way Inv2 does, and resorted to life-time banning me when I posted as Greenfly, and a further life-time ban when I re-emerged as Village Idiot. Farrar's inability to deal with my humour is mirrored by Gravedodger's blindness to my fomenting of happy mischief. Some folk just lack a funny bone. You, on the other hand jabba, have lots of funny in you and now that you've adopted a more polite approach, we're getting on like Laurel and Hardy! Gravedodger's more the 'Albert Steptoe' sort of character and awfully irritable!
I was Hugh Manatee as well jabba. I think that's a funny alias, do you?
Lots of others as well, but now I use my real name only, just as Mr Gravedodger does.
On Frogblog I keep Greenfly alive, but everyone there knows it's me.
"Farrar was unable to 'Manage" my contributions the way Inventory 2 does".
I will file that under "Humour".
ROTFLMTO.
My Identity is no secret, I have posted under my given name when sincerity and solemnity suggest it appropriate, published my address in Alzheimers Valley, my email is in my profile and living in a community of some 600 souls over 1/2 of whom are female and many are not considered near the grave I am comfortable.
My choice to use an alter ego is not designed to confuse, conflate,conflict, connive, conjure or otherwise cause any thing that would threaten conciliation.
I was just a little secretly pleased when Pete Duncan named me gravedodger at the first response station in Akaroa when I volunteered 11 years ago, although it is even more appropriate now.
Cheers Murray.
ps keep up the attack mode Village Idiot gets me up in a good space every day. How often is truth stranger than fiction.
Mr Gravedodger
No one believes your 'story' ('first response station' - that's rich!) nor would anyone fall for your claim that your 'real' name is 'Murray' - perhaps if you had chosen a more believable name, your story might have passed the test of credibility. 'Murray'! That's quite good.
My guess of 'Albert Steptoe' has more of the ring of truth about it, most will agree.
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