Every picture tells a story. And the story that this picture tells is of a dreadful result for Labour next Saturday. The Roy Morgan organisation reports:
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National Party set for a clear victory in next Saturday’s New Zealand election with National (53%, unchanged) increasing its lead over the Labour Party (24.5%, down 1.5%). Support for the Green Party (13%, up 1%) has continued to increase while New Zealand First (3%, down 1.5%), ACT NZ (1.5%, up 0.5%) and United Future ( > 0.5%, unchanged) will all struggle to win seats in the new Parliament.
The Maori Party (3%, up 1%) and the Mana Party (1%, unchanged) will contest the seven Maori seats with the Maori Party expected to do well again and likely to benefit from the collapse in the Labour vote since the 2008 New Zealand election while Other minor parties are supported by 1% (up 0.5%).
This poll is as current as it gets; polling only concluded yesterday. Labour's 24.5% result is its lowest ever since Roy Morgan began polling in New Zealand, whilst the Greens' 13% is its best ever. And support for NZ First has dropped.
The Storm in a Teacup hasn't hurt National, but Labour and NZ First have both fallen significantly. It seems that the media's attempts to manipulate public opinion have failed. And Labour is heading for a defeat of unprecedented proportions.
On the basis of this result, National will easily govern alone with 66 seats. Labour will have a mere 31, the Greens 16, the Maori Party 4, Act 2 and Mana and United Future 1 each.
What can Labour do now?
26 comments:
Bill English lived to destroy nz another day. He must be so pleased with himself.
What can Labour do now????
Deny deny deny & deny the polls... As they always have done in this campaign
Nothing truer than it hasn't and doesn't work being Nasty constantly....
Good job, may you poll ratings drop even more..
Looks mighty like what happened to the Nats in 2002. When you have no hope and your a major party your vote collapses.
I guess we will have to wait for the next Labour "game changer" to get them out of the crap. I'm certain the Labour campaign manager will have something up his sleeve.
Go bill English minister of finance! Double dipton and 2002 never happened! Yay!
Lindsay - All the Labour Campaign Manager has up his sleeve is more nastiness, along with more nastiness...
Trevor Mallard has nothing but air up his sleeve....
The next "game changer" will happen when all the old foggies have been kicked out of the party.... Along with it not being a pre req to be a union hack to be a part of the Labour Party....
The world has changed, the NZ Labour Party has not..
Whafe,
Your last comment about Labour not changing is at the heart of what is wrong with them.
Their front bench is full of old dinosaurs most of them ministers under Helen. On the other side the financial state of the party isn't great and their policies are rubbish.
Finlayson, English, smith, smith, ryall, dinosaur, dinosaur... Good grief you people are funny.
Brownlee. God you people are blinded by your faith.
Quite right Lindsay and Whafe. Labour could and should have bit the bullet and made significant changes straight after the 2008 election defeat. That their leader, deputy leader and their campaign manager have a combined total of 75 years in Parliament is an indictment on a party trying to present itself as new and exciting. The voting public sees through the illusion. And Damien O'Connor's "gaggle of gays and self-serving unionists" comment earlier in the year was a truth that no-one in Labour would either acknowledge or deal with.
Labour has totally alienated its traditional support base, and even with a change in direction or philosophy, I don't know if they can ever win them back. This could be the beginning of the end of the Labour Party as we know it.
The poll was taken between November 7 and November 18. There was no public knowledge of the teapot tape until November 13, and it wasn't until November 15 that the worst of Key's behaviour (the suicide comments, the press conference walkout, the Police "spare time" comments)started to happen.
So most of the impact of the tea pot tapes won't be reflected in this poll.
Not that any impact is likely to help Labour, but it might harm National and help the Greens and (heaven help us) NZ First.
Using that argument Toad, neither does it reflect the vandalism committed by a member of the Green Party and his mates, and the knowledge of that vandalism by one of the Green Party's most senior staffers. That the vandalism is continuing could yet further harm the Greens; have you checked WO's blog in the last couple of hours?
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1111/S00170/video-new-poll-from-rmr-plus-the-reactor-debate-iv.htm
From the CEO of Roy Morgan minus the bs spin from certain bloggers.
Who in gods good name would go to the son of the ex national party president's blog? I'd've showered already today.
I miss the sharp wit of Robert Guyton at times like this. Instead we have the despairing wails of muppets. Robert would have been lethal with his sharp denial of reality, and singing the praises of a greenwash. Ever cocky in the face of bad news on the left, he always had some witty crumbs to share with his adoring public. The muppets are damp squibs, a poor imitation of the master of the put-down with his rapier-like thrusts to the backs of English, Key, Brownlee, Bennett, and Collins. Even his familiar phrases like "Good Grief" and "akshully", and "rubber wool cup" lack the cutting edge when used by his imitators. I am depressing myself thinking about it. What I need is a toad-load of hemlock to shake me from my woefulness.
Trev said on his last LIVE CHAT, when asked about their weak campaign, "watch this space" seems to be a fav saying. He has 7 days to unleash his lastest game changer.
is robert dead?
No Mort; he just pushed his luck too far once too often, and is having a wee enforced holiday. He's due to return in December, by which time John Key will have formed a new government.
Mort, if you are really missing Robert you can go over to Home Paddock and follow his latest posts.
Alternatively, you could always go to his own blog, although that is a bit of an echo-chamber.
Inv2, I for one are looking forward to the election result and another John Key led government.
@ Ross; indeed. Ele has the patience of a saint, whereas mine was finally exhausted.
As far as the election goes, the only question seemingly remaining now is whether John Key can do the MMP-impossible, and command an outright majority.
If Key beats Goff again in the TV debate(s) next week National will get over the 50% mark easily IMHO.
Inv2, I agree regarding Ele, and she is also such a nice host.
In your defense regarding the famous banning - Robert subjected you to sustained provocation, and your own patience was laudable.
Labour look like they are heading for a historic defeat.
Their lack of succession planning is really going to bite them after this election, and will in fact mean that they will be very poorly equipped to contest the 2014 election. They will simply lack experience - working on the assumption that most of their senior MP's will retire in the interim.
What will be most interesting from a historical point of view is whether the ebb of the Labour Party will continue, and whether we are in fact observing the beginning of the end of the Labour Party.
Interesting times......
Bullies mistake tolerance for weakness.
Ele is extremely tolerant, as is Inventory2. Both are very good-humoured, and even in the face of constant provocation they smile and remain cheerful.
The blogsphere is the better for their presence.
I just asked if he was dead, I wasn't missing him in the slightest!
Thanks for your kind words st.even
The communist communists at 13%, the too gutless to be genuine communists at 24%.
That's scary!
Post a Comment