The Labour Party lost badly last night. From 43 MP's at the 2008 election, Labour's caucus has been cut by more than 20%, and only 34 MP's will turn up at the caucus meeting on Tuesday.
It seems almost set in stone that Phil Goff will stand aside as leader, so that begs the question; who will be putting their hand up to replace him? We've been watching The Nation on TV3, and already Shane Jones has ruled himself out (whilst referring to Labour's caucus as a "gaggle of egos"!), but Grant Robertson is at present being far more evasive.
The rumours are circulating this morning of two Camp Davids; David Cunliffe, with Liane Dalziel as deputy, and David Parker, with Robertson as his right-hand man. The third David, David Shearer has been quiet so far, but don't forget that it was Phil Goff who shoe-horned Shearer into the vacant Mt Albert seat in 2009, and Shearer represents a much more centrist group in the Labour caucus.
We're not exactly sure yet of where the cut-line falls on Labour's list, but Stuart Nash, Carmel Sepuloni, Kelvin Davis and Carol Beamont will all be looking for work on Monday morning. We feel for Nash and Davis in particular. Shane Jones has hinted that Davis will not be back in public life again, and that is a pity. We do know that Andrew Little will be the only new Labour list MP, and only three new electorate MP's; Rino Tirikatene, Megan Woods and David Clark. Labour had a golden opportunity after the 2008 defeat to rejuvenate, but they chose not to, and that has cost them dearly.
The next few days will be interesting as they competing forces within Labour gather and plot one another's downfall. Who will prevail in all the fallout?
UPDATE: We've had a quick look at Labour's list, and reckon the the last list MP to be elected is Raymond Huo, at #21 on the list. But he will have a very nervous wait; if Brendon Burns retains Christchurch Central, Huo will join the ranks of those looking for alternative employment.
And of the top 20 on Labour's list (those guaranteed a place in the 50th Parliament, 11 are there by the grace of MMP. Of that 11, David Parker, Maryan Street, Clayton Cosgrove, Sue Moroney, Charles Chauvel, Jacinda Ardern, Andrew Little and Moana Mackey were defeated in electorate contests yesterday; yet the public seems to have voted to retain MMP; go figure!