The Labour Party lost badly last night. From 43 MP's at the 2008 election, Labour's caucus has been cut by more than 20%, and only 34 MP's will turn up at the caucus meeting on Tuesday.
It seems almost set in stone that Phil Goff will stand aside as leader, so that begs the question; who will be putting their hand up to replace him? We've been watching The Nation on TV3, and already Shane Jones has ruled himself out (whilst referring to Labour's caucus as a "gaggle of egos"!), but Grant Robertson is at present being far more evasive.
The rumours are circulating this morning of two Camp Davids; David Cunliffe, with Liane Dalziel as deputy, and David Parker, with Robertson as his right-hand man. The third David, David Shearer has been quiet so far, but don't forget that it was Phil Goff who shoe-horned Shearer into the vacant Mt Albert seat in 2009, and Shearer represents a much more centrist group in the Labour caucus.
We're not exactly sure yet of where the cut-line falls on Labour's list, but Stuart Nash, Carmel Sepuloni, Kelvin Davis and Carol Beamont will all be looking for work on Monday morning. We feel for Nash and Davis in particular. Shane Jones has hinted that Davis will not be back in public life again, and that is a pity. We do know that Andrew Little will be the only new Labour list MP, and only three new electorate MP's; Rino Tirikatene, Megan Woods and David Clark. Labour had a golden opportunity after the 2008 defeat to rejuvenate, but they chose not to, and that has cost them dearly.
The next few days will be interesting as they competing forces within Labour gather and plot one another's downfall. Who will prevail in all the fallout?
UPDATE: We've had a quick look at Labour's list, and reckon the the last list MP to be elected is Raymond Huo, at #21 on the list. But he will have a very nervous wait; if Brendon Burns retains Christchurch Central, Huo will join the ranks of those looking for alternative employment.
And of the top 20 on Labour's list (those guaranteed a place in the 50th Parliament, 11 are there by the grace of MMP. Of that 11, David Parker, Maryan Street, Clayton Cosgrove, Sue Moroney, Charles Chauvel, Jacinda Ardern, Andrew Little and Moana Mackey were defeated in electorate contests yesterday; yet the public seems to have voted to retain MMP; go figure!
10 comments:
IV - I thought this mght fit better here.
Listening to Larry Williams on NewstalkZB a few minutes ago it seems Labour is split into three Camp Davids:
Camp David C
Cunliffe & Dalzell
Camp David P
Parker and Robertson
Camp David S
Shearer and ?
If Robertson moved to support Shearer that may be their best option at this early stage.
Whoever takes up the challenge has the big job of getting King, Horomia, Mallard, Dyson, and a few others to gracefully move to the back benches and I don't think any of them do gracefully.
November 27, 2011 8:40 AM
I think you will need to add Burns to the Labour lost souls after special votes are counted.
I can see Davies and Nash looking for `proper jobs' but no doubut Beaumont and Sepuloni will morph back into roles bludging off the efforts of others.
It was close run thing in the end and from my perspective a good result in that my crowd now have to rejuvenate. I voted for Winston in the hope he would force National into a abstaining arrangement with the Greens that won't happen even if the specials give the Greens another MP but this is a weakened National government and I am betting that asset sales are now off the agenda.
Phil is history and that is sad he is my MP and got my electorate vote. I expect to be voting in a by election soon. Nash appeals as a candidate to replace Phil but that probably won't happen.
Robertson should go for it as leader in his own right. His time is now I hope he recognises that.
I am glad we lost because the left wing spending agenda was insane we need to ditch those idiotic ideas like extending working for families. I am confident that we can win 2014.
When Phil resigns I hope he asks that some of the deadwood on the Labour list follow his example a couple of names spring to mind.
Labour's new situation is very like National after the 2002 election where their leader Bill English from a severely weakened found it very difficult to make much headway in opposition. It isn't a great looking list they have. Again think of the tired hacks the Nats had from 1999 - 2005.
Labour's problems aren't just who leads the parliamentary party its the very foundations of the organizational/fundraising/philosophy of the party.They simply aren't a modern centre-left democratic anymore.
They fought a Don Quixote style campaign with Quixote (Goff) having a go at imaginary windmills egged on by Duckman (Sancho Panza). Only a fool would make a 20+ year old policy debate (asset sales a key plank of their election policy.
The sisterhood is dead in the water and union side of Labour is rather sick as well after Little's loss in New Plymouth.
missed a word:
should say "aren't a modern centre-left democratic party anymore"
Banks should kill ACT and join the Conservatives. If there's one thing Craig has shown, you can go a long way quickly with an international brand name - I suggest that we need a Liberal party to arise this term and the sooner the better.
JS - I am not sure how Liberal some of Craig,s lot are. After all Baldock at 3 is a United Future drop out and I understand Copeland (another UF dropout) is also involved. My dentist was at 52 on their list and I would not consider him Liberal - more a single issue man.
Kris Faafoi and Darien Fenton FTW !!!
Moana Mackey lost again to the most unpopular National Party Minister Anne Tolley, in a seat that Moana's mother Janet Mackey held for Labour for 3 terms.
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