Monday, November 28, 2011

Who has the numbers?

Labour's first post-election caucus meeting tomorrow will be an interesting one. Phil Goff has already decided on his future, and will make that announcement to his caucus. And we've just heard on Newstalk ZB's 9am news that Annette King will do likewise.

So if both, as expected, stand down from their leadership roles, who will take over? We've heard of a David Cunliffe/Liane Dalziel ticket for the leader/deputy leader roles, but we've also heard that Liane Dalziel isn't interested. That might have something to do with this blog-post, the link to which was sent to us yesterday; check this out:

From pretty good authority, here are the numbers in the coming contest between Davids Parker and Cunliffe.

FWIW, I lean Shearer but would support Parker over Cunliffe. Would prefer the caucus attendance book over Cunliffe.

    Parker/Robertson (22)
    Parker
    Goff
    King
    Mallard
    Horomia
    Street
    Cosgrove
    Mahuta
    Ardern
    G Robertson
    Jones
    Sio
    Fenton
    Wall
    R Robertson
    O’Connor
    Clark
    Tirakatene
    Woods
    Faafoi
    Twyford
    Shearer

    Cunliffe/Dalziel (11)
    Cunliffe
    Dyson
    Moroney
    Chauvel
    Little
    Mackey
    Curran
    Prasad
    Dalziel
    Lees-Galloway
    Burns

    Unsure/conflicted

    Hipkins



On the basis of that set of numbers David Parker clearly has the numbers to assume Labour's leadership, with Grant Robertson as his deputy, by a ratio of 2:1 over Cunliffe. But the most interesting aspect is that both the gaggle and the self-servers referred to by Damien O'Connor are split between the two Camp Davids. That suggests that a new leadership team will not automatically produce unity within the Labour caucus.

Over at Homepaddock, Ele refers to Labour's leadership as a "poisoned chalice". It most certainly was prior to the election, when nobody was prepared to publicly challenge Phil Goff's leadership, despite widespread discontent. Whichever of the Davids succeeds Phil Goff (and we wouldn't rule David Shearer out yet) will face a major challenge unifying Labour's caucus, persuading longer-term MP's to reconsider their futures, and positioning the party so that it becomes a credible opposition party, and a candidate to once again govern at some future election.

6 comments:

Suz said...

I wouldn't rule out Winston as a contender!

Keeping Stock said...

Stranger things have happened Suz, but somehow, I don't think so. I don't think he'd have nuch time for either the gaggle OR the self-servers!

gravedodger said...

The pensioner has no room for any self servers, his ego expands to fill any void except an honesty box.
Many said they voted for NZF to keep the others honest, ROTFLMTO.

Lindsay Addie said...

Labour can rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic by changing the leader but it doesn't mean a thing while they remain in denial mode about why they've done so poorly in the election.

Some of the excuses they're using are pathetic.

Anonymous said...

Parker, who I know, is a risk taker, lawyer by profession,entrepreneur, not very successful. More in the Cullen mode-details person. If Labour want to get traction reverse the the Parker/Robertson pairing. Grant has much better strategic skills and is not the abusive person Parker/Cullen is.
Parker is the first person I have known to become a politician, and how it has changed him. He just loves the power and baubles of being an MP. But so many MP's do the same across parties; good job if you can get it.

jabba said...

Labour really has to adjust their List more than anything else