So who's likely to be supporting who? We blogged last week about a split in the numbers between Cunliffe and David Parker, but as they say in the classics, a week is a long time in politics, and Parker is no longer a contender. So we've given it some thought, and here's how we reckon the numbers stack up this morning (those in bold are ones to have changed alliegance):
David Cunliffe: Cunliffe, Mahuta, Dyson, Moroney, Chauvel, Little, Mackey, Curran, Prasad, Dalziel, Lees-Galloway, Horomia, Tirakatene, Fenton, Street, Wall
David Shearer: Shearer, Jones, Parker, Goff, King, Cosgrove, Ardern, Sio, R Robertson, O'Connor, Clark, Woods, Faafoi, Twyford
Undecided: Huo (if replaced by Burns, Burns will go to Camp Cunliffe), Mallard (keeping a watching brief), Hipkins (who will follow Mallard), G Robertson (considering his options)
We reckon that at the moment, it's 16 to Cunliffe, 14 to Shearer and 4 who are either waiting for others to decide, or keeping their own options open. If Brendon Burns wins Christchurch Central on specials, he will certainly defect to Camp Cunliffe after Shearer's Q&A gaffe yesterday. And Shane Jones may yet be bought; if Cunliffe needs another vote, there's the Finance spokesmanship to offer as a carrot to Jones.
This is of course completely unscientific; it's merely based on our own gut feel of where we think things are at. The final outcome is too close to call at the moment, but Cunliffe certainly enhanced his prospects at the weekend, and those who defected to Camp Shearer last week may now be reconsidering.
Let the battle continue!
UPDATE: Is Trevor Mallard doing the numbers?