Here we go again

What do Julia Gillard and David Shearer have in common? AdelaideNow reports:

VICTORIAN ALP and union sources say a fresh leadership challenge against Julia Gillard could be mounted by August.

Former PM Kevin Rudd is still regarded as the best option.

But it is believed some Labor MPs are pushing for a ticket led by Defence Minister Stephen Smith with Employment Minister Bill Shorten as his deputy.

Sources have told the Herald Sun continual abysmal polling and the damaging Slipper affair have made a challenge more likely, despite Ms Gillard's emphatic win over Mr Rudd in February.

"There is a growing realisation that next year's election could turn out like the catastrophe of Queensland," one source said.

"But if the polling improves, the threat of a challenge will diminish."

Another senior party figure said Ms Gillard was seen as incapable of turning around Labor's fortunes because she was so damaged in voters' minds.

The resignation of Peter Slipper won't have done Julia Gillard any favours. She must have thought that there would be a few months' hiatus after her resounding win over Kevin Rudd in the Labor Party leadership spill in February, but that now seems optimistic.

Julia Gillard's tenure as Prime Minister of Australia and as the leader of the ALP has been a case of one damn thing after another. After the hidings dished out to Labour in state elections, it seems barely credible that she could lead Labor to a victory in the Federal election next year. 

The Australian Labor Party seems far more divided even than its New Zealand counterpart and it faces the prospect of a worse result than NZ Labour's 27% in November 2011. But we remain unconvinced that Rudd is the right person to succeed Ms Gillard. We will be watching developments across the ditch with a considerable degree of interest.