Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Consensus in our times?

The Dom-Post reports on an unusual olive branch being extended:

Labour and the Greens have promised not to attack Prime Minister John Key if he agrees to cross-party talks on the pension age.
Mr Key admitted yesterday that National was isolated over the issue but is standing firm, saying lifting the age is "a very simplistic way of looking at a very complex issue".
The debate has raged over the last few days with a series of reports questioning the affordability of the current scheme.
The Paris-based OECD yesterday warned developed countries must make affordable pension schemes a priority – suggesting 67 "is becoming the new 65".
An ANZ bank survey out yesterday revealed people want at least an extra $100 a week above what NZ Super pays out – but about half those of surveyed were not confident they could save enough.
It comes in the same week lobby group Financial Services Council said tax rates will blow out by a third as life expectancy rises.
Treasury says the cost of NZ Super will be 8 per cent of national income by 2050; the FSC predicts it will be 12 per cent by 2080. 

We made our thoughts plain when we blogged about Pete George's BADASS campaign on superannuation earlier in June. Superannuation is the real elephant in the room in New Zealand politics, and the continuation of our superannuation scheme in its present form will be a hugely significant economic issue in years to come.

So it is pleasing to see consensus being advocated; read on:

Labour leader David Shearer pledged not to criticise Mr Key if he softened his stance.
"The prime minister has boxed himself into a corner. He has closed off options when the public wants to have a proper discussion about it.
"People are concerned about whether superannuation can continue to exist in its current form into the future.
"If he was prepared to say 'I'm going to have a discussion about going from 65 to 67,' I would give an undertaking now that we would not politick on that. We would sit down and have a proper discussion on it."
The Green Party wants to keep the age of entitlement at 65. But co-leader Russel Norman says the party recognises the fiscal challenges.
"We are very much open to multi-party discussion. We think that's the best way to settle it if we can reach a cross-party accord, as has been done in the past. Most government decision-making is driven by politics rather than good policy."
Dr Norman said Mr Key had "painted himself into a political corner and now he's stuck with it. And it's silly". 

We'll admit to a vested interest here. 2020 is the year where it is suggested that changes in the age of entitlement to superannuation may need to kick in. And 2020 is also the year where we will reach the age of 65. So we have something of a stake in this! We don't plan to retire at 65, although by then we may be ready to start cutting back a little. But if the age of entitlement for superannuation is going to start to increase in 2020, we will want to be sure that we have made sufficient independant provision to maintain our income.

We welcome this move by David Shearer and Russel Norman to make superannuation non-political. And we reckon that John Key would be wise to accept the olive branch being offered to him; after all, failure to do so would leave him vulnerable to the two main parties of the Left.

John Key may well have made superannuation a die-in-a-ditch issue. But David Shearer and Russel Norman have thrown him a rope. We hope that he accepts it; superannuation is far too important an issue to continue to be a political football, and cross-party consensus now could indeed produce a solution that will endure regardless of who occupies the Treasury Benches.

Is consensus in our times too much to hope for?

6 comments:

PM of NZ said...

"move by David Shearer and Russel Norman to make superannuation non-political"

Bollocks to it being non-political. More like anything to get noticed.

After all they are politicians, nothing more.

Joel said...

Like the previous commenter I sceptical of how genuine these undertakings to be non-political are, and how well (especially Shearer) will keep the rest of his party from thinking they're really clever when/if John Key backs down and they criticise National for it.

I am reminded of a quote from Peter Dunne [paraphrased] "Consensus for the Green Party means everyone agreeing with their point of view".

So put me down as doubtful. The positions are too different. Shearer moved to shore up Labour's Working Class Maori/Pacific front by suggesting 'manual workers' could retire earlier in fact, which would create a huge compliance problem and potentially open itself to rorts by farmers etc. In contrast to that, Key's position at maintaining the age at 65 is very sensible.

Dunne's flexi-super won't save any money (in fact I'd suspect it will cost more), NZ First's 2011 manifesto said it wanted to "cement in place the age of entitlement to New Zealand Superannuation at 65 years", so I think there is approximately zero chance of a consensus, and any involvement by NZ First is a sham to attack Key - their policy on it is identical.

I don't think anything will be accomplished. If anyone wants to do anything with genuine good faith, it will be the Greens. However, note that their latest policy on retirement found on their website states "Maintain universal New Zealand Superannuation for all New Zealanders 65 years and older". So their desire for it to be "sustainable" seems to be very new-found indeed. I don't remember what they said during the election though. Could easily have been different.

In my view the ACT Party is the only credible party now on superannuation. They promoted raising the age before the 2011 election in a simple, clear way. Labour did too, but they've made it a hash of it since.

So yeah. I doubt any change will be made.

Anonymous said...

Lure Key into backing-down then slaughter him for his weakness. Super is the elephant in the room and Key was and is an idiot to be stalling progress on it. Why is he doing it? Votes. Thought he was above politics. You know, he's just like Winston Peters.

Siena said...

Shearer can't even pretend to bind future actions of the Labour Party.

He has to prove first that he's a leader, in control for the next 5-10 years. Unlikely scenario.

Anonymous said...

A rabbit is sitting on the banks Persdmof a river in northern Queensland wishing it could be on the other side. As he cannot swim, he sits there pondering how this was possible without travelling all the way to the head of the river, when a crocodile emerges from the water.
"Why the long face little bunny?"
"I wish I could be on the other side of the river, but do not want to travel for days to the head of the river."
"Well," said the crocodile, "why don't you hop onto my head and I will carry you to the other side?"
"Oh no," said the rabbit. "You will eat me up as soon as I hop towards you."
"No I won't," said the crocodile. "This is an act of goodwill towards a fellow creature of the wild. I give you my word you will be delivered to the other side unharmed."
The rabbit pondered for a minute, then agreed, as the other side of the river was tantalisingly close.
"Very well, I shall take up your kind offer," and hopped up onto the crocodile's head.
The crocodile swam back across the river with the rabbit high and dry on its head. When they were close enough for the rabbit to leap ashore, the crocodile said "There, I have delivered you safely", and told the rabbit to jump. As it did, the crocodile snapped its jaws around the rabbit while it was in mid-air.
"But you promised you would not eat me," the little rabbit wailed.
"Yes," said the crocodile, "but you knew what I was before you accepted my offer."

Judge Holden said...

Key can't go along with this because it would damage hin politically. We're all worse off because it turns out he lacks nous, and he's a useless manager. This is who you shill for.