Just lovely

Winter is only ten days old, but already there are signs that it's going to be a cold one; the Herald reports:

A gap in the chilly weather in the South Island will be short lived, as the Metservice warns snow could be back to sea level in some parts tomorrow.

Areas around the South Island have been enjoying fine weather this weekend after a snow storm brought parts of the South Island to a standstill last week.

But Metservice have today issued a weather watch for the Banks Peninsula and eastern areas of Southland and Otago as another cold front sweeps over the South Island.

MetService forecaster Allister Gorman said cold winds around the coastal hills from the Catlins to the Otago Peninsula were likely to rise to gale force during tomorrow morning.

It could reach warning criteria between midday and midnight.

While around the Banks Peninsula gusts could come close to warning strength from Monday evening until early Tuesday morning.

There would be the possibility of snow flurries near sea level in Southland and Otago during Monday night and early Tuesday morning, Mr Gorman said.

There's even dissention amongst the ranks of weather gurus; read on:

Meanwhile, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) has forecast "near normal'' weather for the next three months.

For almost every region in New Zealand, NIWA is predicting a 50 per cent chance of average winter temperatures and a 40 per cent chance of average rainfall.

Weather Watch analyst Philip Duncan has an icier prediction for winter.

He said the weekend's fine weather would be short lived and he anticipated two cold snaps this week.

"Gone are the days of having a week of settled weather,'' said Mr Duncan, who predicts New Zealand is six times more likely than normal this winter to have a nation-wide polar blast similar to the one that brought snow to Auckland last year.

"There's still a 70 per cent chance we're not going to get a repeat of last August. We need quite a few things to fall into place ... (but) we've got all the right ingredients to have another nation-wide polar blast.''

This weekend's "drier and sunnier'' weather is a small blessing as winter starts to set in, Mr Duncan said.

 Where's Global Warming when you need it? Perhaps a mid-winter trip to warmer climes is called for.