The Sunday Star-Times' lead story today tells us that John Key is apparently losing his gloss; it opines:
A new poll has found Prime Minister John Key is increasingly becoming a polarising figure - especially among women.The first Fairfax Media/Ipsos political poll shows National has enough support for a third term, 44.9 per cent to Labour's 32.6 per cent, assuming the current mix of support parties. But it also reveals a growing divide, with many still strongly backing Key, but a growing sense of anger and distrust among others.
Wow; that might be news if it wasn't followed by this:
Interviewers asked 100 people to describe Key in as few words as possible. The pollsters said many voters rated him a straight-shooter and good or excellent leader, but a significant number thought he was arrogant, smarmy and out of touch.
And worse is to follow; the poll shows that John Key is still enjoying a huge level of support; read on:
Key still has the confidence of an overwhelming majority - 63 per cent saying he had a clear vision for the country, and was a strong and effective leader.
This is misleading headline writing of the worst "who cares if it's factual? It'll sell newspapers" variety. Anyone with even a basic understanding of statistics knows that the bigger the selection of respondents, the more statistically valid a poll is. And we have real difficulties with a poll of just 100 people.
And let's not forget; it was the Sunday Star-Times which brought us the Horizon poll last year where respondents self-selected. The Horizon poll consistently predicted a win for the parties of the Left last year, until the SST suddenly fell out of love with it.
11 comments:
Key is smarmy and women don't like smarmy men. Some men though, are obsessed and can't see the smarminess.
I undertook a (one person) poll on the quality of the SST.
The outcome was that it is rubbish.
There are many in the community who share the view of Keith, robertguyton, Judge Holden, Spinoza, Robert Winter, the authors of The Standard. Perhaps not as many as they might want us all to believe, but it is important to them to try and alienate John Key from the majority of New Zealanders. It is probably the most effective weapon they have in their political toolbox because most people simply don't like to get involved in personal denigration. The result is that those who join that conversation are those who express agreement, adding confidence where policy might not. Where they comment on blogs, that tool broadens only to denigrate other people, either politicians, other commenters, or the blog hosts. It is not an endearing message, but they have little alternative as their views on policy appeal to so few.
"* a poll with just 100 respondents".
Incorrect according to the poll PDF.
"The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters by telephone over four nights from July 19 to July 23
and has a margin of error of 3.1 per cent. Only decided voters are used in the calculation
of percentages of party support."
The article on Stuff says "Interviewers asked 100 people to describe Key in as few words as possible. "
That's either a typo, or they asked 100 people to describe Key but polled 1000.
@ baxter - well said
@ Pete George - cheers for that. I guess that if 63% of 1000 respondents approve of Key, then he's doing an even better job than with 63% approval of s sample of 100. It's still fascinating that less people disapprove of the PM than didn't vote for him!
Pete George is probably right and the poll is valid. What it showed is that
a significant number thought he was arrogant, smarmy and out of touch.
Those aren't good descriptors for a Prime Minister who relies on charm. The Fairfax/Media poll shows that there is a growing sense of anger and distrust for what Key is doing. A growing sense, not a shrinking, or negligible sense, but a growing sense of anger and distrust around John Key. Poll watchers always say, it's the trends that are important. The trend here is for growing distrust and anger.
"But what this poll shows is that fewer people oppose John Key (37%) than voted for Labour, the Greens, the Mana Party and NZ First cumulatively."
Keith may be correct about trends. It is quite likely that more people oppose John Key (37%) than will vote for Labour, the Greens, the Mana Party and NZ First cumulatively.
Eewww smarmy makes my skin creep.
I was interviewed for this poll. I was asked exactly the same questions about David Shearer as I was about John Key. I note that those results aren't mentioned in the article.
One interesting question was "do you agree or disagree with the statement: John Key is more interested in himself and his party that the good of the country". Followed by the same question about David Shearer.
Also, if you follow your link to the article, and then another link to more details about the poll, it says that 87% of people who voted National last time would vote National again now. But a smaller percentage of voters for each of the other parties would not change their vote - so more National voters happy with their vote than voters of any other party!
@ Hollyfield - asking the media to tell the whole story? Don't hold your breath!
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