Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 43.5% (up 2% since September 24 – October 7, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 3.5% (up 2%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 29% (down 4.5%); Greens are 13% (down 0.5%), New Zealand First 7.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 0.5% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 2% (unchanged) and Others 0.5% (unchanged).
How can this be? Maybe it's got something to do with David Shearer's bungled attempt to smear John Key and senior management at the GCSB using the Shearer Burden of Proof.
New Zealanders don't like dirty politics. They sent that message to Labour in 2008, and again in 2011. Now almost all the gains that Labour has made in the last year after its worst ever performance under MMP have been squandered through one gaffe by the leader.
Norm Kirk swept Labour to power in 1972 with the slogan "It's Time For a Change". We wonder if the winds of change are gathering strength in the Labour caucus room, and if the ABC's are about to hold their noses and do the unthinkable.
22 comments:
Good morning Labour and Greens
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
In your excitement you're reading a wee bit much into one poll result. Pity your relentless attacks on the Greens aren't coming to anything, though. At least Act has stopped bleeding support. It's amazing that 1 in 200 New Zealanders still support them. John Banks is to be congratulated.
In a press release from Green Headquarters in Riverton, Mr Norman Russel acknowledged the huge impact his recent trip to Hollywood has had. Coat-tailing the Prime Minister, Mr Russel announced that his Quantative Greasing meant new jobs in Southland, with four new movies to be shot in the up coming months.
The first is a remake of Hopalong Cassidy and Tonto Go West.
The new film will be named "Hop Along Haphazardly as Rio Tinto Goes West" and will be shot on location in Bluff. This docu-drama will show how Green Party Policy vacillates from wanting an international industrial polluter closed down, to claiming empathy with the hundreds of job loses, while at the same time lauding the increasing unemployment as a weapon against the Government of the day. Dependency on welfare will be accommodated by printing new "living wage notes". This process will be know as "Vegetative Easing", replacing the redundant "Veggies for Votes" policy of 2011.
Director: Jack Peterson
The second is a remake of Bridge Over The River Kwai.
The new film will be named "Bridge Over The River - Why?" and will be shot in Gore. This documentary shows Green Policy on Transport Issues, particulary the canning of RoNS and Holiday Highways. First project to be vetoed was the super-highway known as the Clinton-Gore Presidential Highway. This cancellation was officially launched by Al Gore on his recent visit to NZ. The title "An Inconvenient Truth" was turned down as the Clinton reference may have offended the Greens' Cuban counterparts if confused with the Green anti-tobacco lobby.
Director: Cameron James
The third film is a remake of A Star Is Born.
The new film will be renamed "A Tsar Is Bjorn", and will be shot on location in Invercargill. The title reflects the importance of the Finnish model for education, placing most of the importance on the Teachers' Union. This documentary sets out to confuse parents as to Finnishing Schools, who will enrol their children (known as kids in the Tsarist model) believing them to be Charter Schools and Private Schools, which will have been abolished.
Director: Ken Neddy
The fourth film is a remake of Twelve Angry Men.
The new film will be renamed "One Angry Man With Twelve Different Names". This is a comedy, and will be shot on location in Riverton. This is the true story of Green Party attempt to Occupy the Treasury Benches by making 8.5% support look like 99%. Auditions will be held locally to provide authenticity to the leading role.
Director: Robert Chapton
In your haste to shoot the messenger Edward, you're forgetting the 3News poll (the one that Helen Clark always swore was the best guide) of just two weeks ago that showed that National could govern alone on 62 seats, and that Labour was way back. Just in case you don't believe me, here's the narrative and link:
Mr Key will be buoyed by tonight's results. National appears to have escaped unscathed from his brain-fade over Dotcom. At 62 seats, National quite remarkably could govern alone.
http://keepingstock.blogspot.co.nz/2012/10/a-surprising-poll.html
You'll have to up your game Edward. Frankly, I'm disappointed in you!
Oh, Eddie. Haven't the left been reading too much into past poll results? And attacking the Greens?? It's pointing out their hypocrisy - BS Prout has a blog maybe you will find it less stressful over there. Perhaps you both could dream up the next smear campaign or crazy economic policy?
stop gloating KS, Key's popularity is on the slide (look at the poor decisions by the judicary lately, how about blogging on that>), and in 2014 I am confident that Labour will beat Key in the election, two years away, a long time. Whether under Cunliffe or Shearer, Labour will squeak home. Key's self-interested motives are becoming far more apparent to the NZ public.
Keep gloating KS, Key's popularity is and will remain solid (look at the poor decisions by Labour in plaing the man and not the ball), and in 2014 I am confident that Labour will become the official third party, losing soundly to Key in the election, two years away, a long time for L/G/NZF three way to unravel. Whether under Cunliffe or Shearer, Labour will screw up. Labour / Green hypocritical motives are becoming far more apparent to the NZ public.
Was I gloating The Truth Hurts? Sheesh; I'm sorry; I was simply trying to report the facts ;-)
Under Key's administration, crime has crept out of control and we seem to have a bunch of loony left-leaning judges, devoid of feelings for victims or common sense.
We have a dishonest government with a leader who lies and lies smugly, we have high unemployment and an economy that is fast unravelling.
Labour were far more successful as governors, they had high employment, low crime, dealt with welfare decently and a leader with brains, caring and integrity. Key has none of these qualities at all, just a huge bank balance and a celebrity-like status.
Yes you sounding like you were gloating, but in 2014 Cunliffe or Shearer will be PM, I am staking my house on it, and my not so large bank balance. A bet I'm sure to win.
Best you start looking for a rental then.
I do think it is quite remarkable that National continues to hang on in the polls despite the mess of ACC, the problems of security in Work and Income, the mess that education has become (we were in the top 4 when National took power and now we appear to be 7th and falling) the Kim Dotcom affair, the continually delayed asset sales and the complete and utter disgrace that is John Banks. It is hardly good management that keep them there.
I also think that rather than crow over one poll that you need to look at the general trend and if an election was ever held over the last few months then National wouldn't be able to govern.
If you want to celebrate the the odd upswing in a generally dying government then I guess it does keep ones spirits up.
brilliant Norman CQ
Bsprout lists some of Nationals failings and he is correct in many ways. The thing is, the fact that National are polling so well with those disasters show the true story .. there is no opposition in NZ, they are a dead loss.
Not all that surprising bsprout.
Decent folk have no appetite for politicians and their followers calling everyone else liars. It was the final straw that put the Clark/Peters Government out in 2008. Goff did not learn that lesson, and his more general appeal quickly abated. I do not discuss party politics with people, but when they ask about minor parties, I direct them to your blog, Robert Winter's and that other Green fellow who is banned from here. It gives them a very clear picture of the politics of the left beneath the public facade.
Your influence is considerable, and I do not have say anything.
You're onto it Allan. bsprout needs to read my 8.46am comment to Edward the Confessor; the Roy Morgan poll simply confirms the 3News poll of a fortnight ago.
Labour has thrown its best shot. And it has come up woefully short. And David Shearer will be dismayed at the David Cunliffe (without beard) story in the Listener which hit the shelves today. The forces are mustering against him.
Oh, and bsprout; I didn't mention that the Greens were also down in the RM poll. It would seem that Russel Norman's idea of printing money has gone down a treat.
A recent poll had John Key slipping down in popularity and the National Party also losing support. Keeping Stock posted on the results and made it clear that the reason for this was the public's distaste for a Prime Minister who lies and a party that consistently fails to implement its policy effectively, especially in the field of education.
Commenters here all noted Keeping Stocks even-handed and candid reporting of the Governments back-sliding in that poll.
Yeah right!
That poll!!
But the latest Roy Morgan (with Labour down and National up, and the Roy Morgan sample size seems to get smaller with each poll, and is now just over 800) finds that Labour/Greens/New Zealand First is likely to win an election.
On current settings, isn’t a National-New Zealand First coalition just as likely as a Labour/Greens/New Zealand First coalition? Possibly more so. Given the dynamics of the coalition talks, in which the Greens would have far more seats than New Zealand First, but Winston Peters would have far more leverage than Russel Norman – because Peters can take his votes to National and Norman can’t – it’s hard to imagine Shearer (or whoever) putting together a functional government that lasts for three years. John Key probably won’t have any other significant coalition partners to worry about. He might have the Conservatives, but they’d probably be a luxury (like United Future during his last term) and they’d be smaller than New Zealand First."
Crikey!
Norman@8:23
Lovely piece of work, that. I admire a girl who applies herself to her writing (Norman is such an unusual name for a lass), in this case a minor press release admittedly, but nevertheless makes a real effort to both entertain and instruct. You've certainly whetted my appetite for the films, which I hope will premier in my hometown very soon, sometime before the next election I hope, as once the new Green Government is sworn in, I'll be flat out partying and penning policy willy-nilly. I've some ideas that I'm sure New Zealanders will warm to. With that thought in mind, I'd like to invite you to join our propaganda team, here at Green HQ - you've proved you're able to think and write at the same time, something that eludes most here, and have a good grasp of spoof, something we green activists like to employ as a counter to pomposity and arrogance found here and there and always in need of deflating. What do you say, lass? Are you up for working with a creative team who love the work they do?
"..willy-nilly..."
"Nilly-willy" seems more appropriate.
Whaddyamean sonny?
I've some ideas that I'm sure New Zealanders will warm to.
Lignite mining?
Upon reflection, I withdraw my snipey, trite crap and stick with the 'I like your work' stuff.
Bronson - your 'lignite warms' (the cockles of my heart) stuff is good.
Jack's son and Dick - yours was worse than mine, thanks.
Should add, I'm not surprised at your creativity, given you're a Southern man.
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