Thursday, November 15, 2012

Too close to call

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out, and already the effect of the National for Shearer Facebook page is being felt; both National and Labour are up at the expense of the smaller parties. The Roy Morgan organisation reports:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 45.5% (up 2% since October 8-21, 2012). Support for Key’s Coalition partners shows the Maori Party 2% (down 1.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 32.5% (up 3.5%); Greens are 10.5% (down 2.5%), New Zealand First 5% (down 2.5 %), Mana Party 1% (up 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today this NZ Roy Morgan Poll says it would be too close to call.
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 7.5pts to 117.5 with 51.5% (up 2.5%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (down 5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Gary Morgan says:
“Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows Prime Minister John Key’s National (45.5%, up 2%) retaining a strong lead over the main Opposition Labor Party (32.5%, up 3.5%). Support for third party the Greens has fallen to 10.5% (down 2.5%) — now at their lowest for more than a year, since October 2011.
“The governing block of National/ Maori Party/ ACT NZ & United Future (48.5%, up 1%) are now almost level with the elected opposition of Labour/ Greens/ NZ First/ Mana Party (49%, down 1%) and any election held now would be too close to call.
“Better news for Prime Minister Key is the improving consumer sentiment in New Zealand — the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index is now at 114.1 — at its equal highest since January 2012 (116.1).”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a NZ wide cross-section of 861 electors from October 29 — November 11, 2012. Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party. 

So the overall balance between the Left and the Right has tilted back again. Last fortnight, the poll had Labour leading a government. Now the Morgan people say it's too close to call.

It may be enough to buy David Shearer some time however; the next few days are going to be fascinating for those who follow politics closely.



No comments: