The latest 3News-Reid Research poll was released last night. And it seems that the result was not the one that Patrick Gower wanted to write about and talk about; check this out:
National is on 51.4 percent – that’s up 4 percent. That's come off Labour, down two to 32.6 percent. And the Greens are also down two points as well, to 10.8 percent. New Zealand First Party leader Winston Peters is on about 3.4 percent.Turning now to the minor parties, they are not up to much at all. ACT remain on death watch – only one person out of 1000 is prepared to vote for them. That's better than Hone Harawira and his Mana Party.In the Parliament, National would have 64 seats – a clear majority, without needing support partners who won electorate seats. Labour, the Greens, and Mr Harawira's electorate seat would only get the left bloc to 56.In the preferred Prime Minister's stakes, Mr Key is on 41 percent – the same story, a bounce of nearly four points. Mr Shearer is back on 10 percent, and Mr Peters and Green Party co-leader Russel Norman are both well back, but still registering out there.Mr Key may try to make out it's not, but this poll really is all about him. His performance and National's are intrinsically linked. If he goes up, National goes up, and vice versa.The majority of the public are clearly not blaming Mr Key for the flat-lining economy and all the job losses out there, which are becoming all too real, or maybe they don't see the Labour-Green bloc as a viable alternative.Mr Shearer's personal performance has really improved of late, but these numbers will leave the left hurting. Four years on, they still struggle to compete with Brand Key.And tonight, the Opposition will be left asking themselves: just what do we do about Teflon John?
The polls are a bit of a mystery at the moment; 3News, One News and Herald polls all favour National, the Fairfax poll favours the Left bloc (Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana/Maori Party) and the Roy Morgan poll swings back and forth between the Left and the Right like a pendulum.
But this is the most emphatic of the recent polls. And what Paddy Gower DIDN'T tell viewers in this piece was the timing of this poll. Polling was conducted between the 16th and 21st of February. That means that the last three days of polling were set against a background where opposition parties were bagging John key and National over the Auditor-General's report into the Sky City Convention Centre report. Put simply, either the carnage for the Left in this poll would have been even worse, or the voters simply don't care about the technical niceties of the process that Key and co followed; they just want the thing built and the jobs created. We suspect it's the latter.
Labour will be especially disappointed by this poll. The infighting will continue now that David Shearer's leadership has been rubber-stamped. With each poll, the 2014 General Election draws nearer, and there will be plenty of nervous Labour MP's.