Monday, February 25, 2013

Tough for Patrick to swallow


The latest 3News-Reid Research poll was released last night. And it seems that the result was not the one that Patrick Gower wanted to write about and talk about; check this out:


National is on 51.4 percent – that’s up 4 percent. That's come off Labour, down two to 32.6 percent. And the Greens are also down two points as well, to 10.8 percent. New Zealand First Party leader Winston Peters is on about 3.4 percent.
Turning now to the minor parties, they are not up to much at all. ACT remain on death watch – only one person out of 1000 is prepared to vote for them. That's better than Hone Harawira and his Mana Party.
In the Parliament, National would have 64 seats – a clear majority, without needing support partners who won electorate seats. Labour, the Greens, and Mr Harawira's electorate seat would only get the left bloc to 56.
In the preferred Prime Minister's stakes, Mr Key is on 41 percent – the same story, a bounce of nearly four points. Mr Shearer is back on 10 percent, and Mr Peters and Green Party co-leader Russel Norman are both well back, but still registering out there.
Mr Key may try to make out it's not, but this poll really is all about him. His performance and National's are intrinsically linked. If he goes up, National goes up, and vice versa.
The majority of the public are clearly not blaming Mr Key for the flat-lining economy and all the job losses out there, which are becoming all too real, or maybe they don't see the Labour-Green bloc as a viable alternative.
Mr Shearer's personal performance has really improved of late, but these numbers will leave the left hurting. Four years on, they still struggle to compete with Brand Key.
And tonight, the Opposition will be left asking themselves: just what do we do about Teflon John?

The polls are a bit of a mystery at the moment; 3News, One News and Herald polls all favour National, the Fairfax poll favours the Left bloc (Labour/Greens/NZ First/Mana/Maori Party) and the Roy Morgan poll swings back and forth between the Left and the Right like a pendulum.

But this is the most emphatic of the recent polls. And what Paddy Gower DIDN'T tell viewers in this piece was the timing of this poll. Polling was conducted between the 16th and 21st of February. That means that the last three days of polling were set against a background where opposition parties were bagging John key and National over the Auditor-General's report into the Sky City Convention Centre report. Put simply, either the carnage for the Left in this poll would have been even worse, or the voters simply don't care about the technical niceties of the process that Key and co followed; they just want the thing built and the jobs created. We suspect it's the latter.

Labour will be especially disappointed by this poll. The infighting will continue now that David Shearer's leadership has been rubber-stamped. With each poll, the 2014 General Election draws nearer, and there will be plenty of nervous Labour MP's.

1 comment:

Carter Fan said...

The polls are, as you say, a bit of a mystery at the moment. Most of National's schemes are collapsing around them (assets, Solid Energy, - still looking to invest in those coal-asset shares are you KS?) or looking sleazy (gambling dens that come with their own high-rise whore-houses) yet the polls rate them highly. It's a curious phenomenon. Personally, I don't believe National are due such support, in light of their poor management, especially of the economy and in particular, the employment situation. Nevertheless, they seem to be being credited with something. It's not 'competence', they are not showing much of that at all. It's been noted that you have stopped entirely reporting on National's successes here, becuase there are none, only in the polls, which you've jumped to highlight.
So if it really does come down to the manner of the Prime Minister, that's a very sorry situation indeed, but little can be done about that. I'd put that down to a weakness in the public's knowledge of issues that are genuinely important, rather than those that feature on the cover of the Womans Weekly, but there you go, that seems to be where we are at right now. Those people whose job it is to advise the Government on their 'public face' are doing a splendid job; our perceptions are being shaped very successfully and we seem able to swallow the most outrageous failings from the Government without flinching. I don't think this is a good thing at all, but have to accept that this is the environment in which I find myself, try though I might to change it. Still, early days yet and polls are not the be-all and end-all and they do say it's the trend that we should look at, rather than particular results.
At least we have an excellent speaker now, who will keep John Key honest in the House.