Saturday, July 13, 2013

Quote of the Day - 13 July 2013

Audrey Young gives her verdict on Labour's leadership woes:

Despite the talk of a no-confidence letter, in the event that things got very bad for Labour, it is unlikely that Shearer would need a letter.
The more likely scenario is that party seniors and faction brokers Phil Goff and Annette King, would tell him: it's time, David.
He would resign and a new leadership contest would begin.
How bad would it have to get? There are two reputable polls set to be published in the next few weeks: TV One's and TV3's.
May's TV One and TV3's polls both had Labour on 33 per cent, and Fairfax's had it on 31.9 per cent. Including DigiPoll, three of the four polls have Labour heading south.
It is hard to imagine that the "man-ban" issue (allowing some electorates to have women-only selection contests) and subsequent coup talk has done anything but damage.
Shearer looked decisive for half a news cycle. The lasting image is not of a strong leader but one being kicked by one side of his party for not acting sooner and kicked by the other side of the party for acting at all.
The poor man is beginning to get the public's sympathy, not its support.
The question is whether that downward spin has begun from which there is no recovery.
If Labour were to drop into the 20s in all three polls, that would be understandable given recent events.
If it were to stay there for three months, it would be fatal to Shearer - Goff and King would come knocking. Then the battle would get interesting.
Would the party go with the candidate that could get them closest to Government but risk further disunity in the party, Cunliffe?
Or would it risk going with the lower profile deputy, someone less likely to get them into the Government, someone with less public appeal (nothing to do with him being gay) but more likely to unify the party?
This is the Robertson dilemma. He might be ready but is the public?

 Labour's political management has been woeful, with a recent series of blunders including, but not limited to the Man-Ban, the SkyCity corporate box fiasco, getting too close to the Greens and the lingering discontent within the caucus that David Shearer has failed to temper. The voting public sees that, hence Labour's dreadful poll rankings.

How long will they let it go on? The next round of polls could be telling.

2 comments:

AngryTory said...

All the things you list are tactical - if Labour does a better job perhaps they can win!

You miss the big picture: across the west, countries are abandoning leftist policies and Labour parties are dying with them. Labour is on the wrong side of history - it has no place in politics any more.

The real party whose tactics are screwed isn't Labour - it's National. National, unimaginably actually governing to the left of Hellen Clark! Free school means, the Train Loop, the Maori Terrorist flag on the Harbour Bridge, gay marriage -- all things loved by Labour & the Greens but hated by National voters!

If Whale announced a whale party tomorrow, he'd get at least 10% overnight. The resulting National/Whale party would be a shoe-in for the next election, and we'd see real policy gains - such as abolishing all state schools, banning union contributions (and this effectively wiping out the Labour party), and hopefully banning parties associated with Terrorists (wiping out Greens & Maori & Mana) - as Whale's price!

peterquixote said...

do not wish bad for the Labour Party or Shearer. I wish well for the present NZNat Government.
I rarely watch TV and if Shearer stumbles in interviews big deal.
There is a certain amount of sympathy to quite a nice man who is surrounded by wolves.
In my opinion it is the Labour party which has collapsed and that
aq change to Cunliffe would give us a guarantee of NZ Nat leadership for two following elections