Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 31% (down 0.5%); Greens are 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.
But it's not just the state of the respective parties (and especially HIS party) that will be causing Mr Shearer dyspepsia tonight; read on:
The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 3.5pts to 128.5 (the highest since January 16-29, 2012) with 58% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
That the Morgan Confidence Rating is so high is telling. Interest rates remain at historic lows. Annual inflation is less than 1%. The economy is growing. And the mere fact that the GCR has moved to its highest level pretty much since the 2011 General Election suggests that voters simply do not have an appetite for change.
That spells bad news for David Shearer and Labour. Who's having a BBQ this weekend, we wonder?