Friday, July 19, 2013

The poll result that David didn't want

Parliament is in recess at the moment, and David Shearer has barely been seen or heard from. He's even more likely to bunker down after the latest Roy Morgan poll that has been released tonight. Here's the news he didn't want to hear:

Today’s New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows a small rise in support for Prime Minister John Key’s National Party to 47% (up 0.5% since June 17-30, 2013). Support for Key’s Coalition partners has changed little with the Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%), ACT NZ 0.5% (up 0.5%) and United Future 0% (down 0.5%).
Support for Labour is 31% (down 0.5%); Greens are 11.5% (down 1.5%), New Zealand First 4.5% (up 1%), Mana Party 1.5% (up 1%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
If a National Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows it would be too close to call.

But it's not just the state of the respective parties (and especially HIS party) that will be causing Mr Shearer dyspepsia tonight; read on:

The latest NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 3.5pts to 128.5 (the highest since January 16-29, 2012) with 58% (up 1%) of New Zealanders saying New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29.5% (down 2.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

That the Morgan Confidence Rating is so high is telling. Interest rates remain at historic lows. Annual inflation is less than 1%. The economy is growing. And the mere fact that the GCR has moved to its highest level pretty much since the 2011 General Election suggests that voters simply do not have an appetite for change.

That spells bad news for David Shearer and Labour. Who's having a BBQ this weekend, we wonder?


Edward the Confessor said...

Wow! An unremarkable poll showing no noticeable shift in support for any party and you're spinning it as a victory for the Nats? Desperate much?

The extent of Joyce's appalling wheeler-dealing and pwning at the hands of Sky City is clear now though isn't it? If he's the Nats' chief strategist it's no wonder you're scared.

AngryTory said...

You don't get it. On those votes, were NZ a democracy, National would win at least 90 seats in a 120 seat FPP parliament, more than enough to change the constitution.

Imagine unions, welfare and leftism generally being unconstitutional! (Nearly happened in Oz in 51...)

This represents one of the strongest results ever for government setting up a third term. Hell, six terms of Key/English/Joyce government remains very possible: Key is ten years younger than Clark, he could easily go another three or four terms. Key really has an absolute mandate to radically remake NZ, more than Roger and even more than Ruth - but thanks to MMP is stuck being nothing but a prettier face on Clark's policies.

Keeping Stock said...

You've been listening too much to Metiria Turei if you think that Joyce was "pwned" by SkyCity; they got about a quarter of what they asked for, but New Zealand still gets a $450m convention centre at no charge. That sounds like a good deal to me.

bsprout said...

KS, draw a line through the middle of the dips and peaks to get a more accurate assessment. This will show that National has stopped a steady decline and has settled at around 45%. Labour, despite their general performance have actually steadily increased their support to around 34% and the Greens have been a fairly constant 12.5% (the first time we have maintained a position above the election result). The combined Green/Labour vote would currently average around 46.5%, 1.5% above National. What is slightly unusual is a slight improvement from the last poll for National, rather than another dip, but given the unpredictability of polls, who knows what will happen next?

The unpredictable element is Winston Peters and New Zealand First. With a slight decline they are now sitting around 4%.

Mosey said...

this has got the trolls active. i hear relief in Labour ranks as this poll shows them 2% up on where UMR have them and national are down 6% on UMR.

What this poll does show is that the Green/labour shift to the Left has failed. Something Shane and Clayton will be acting on today and over the weekend.

Keeping Stock said...

Quite so Mosey; quite how Edward can spin a poll where National is up, and Labour and the Greens are down as a victory for the Left is beyond me.

dip rout said...

bsprout said...
KS, draw a line through the middle of the dips and peaks to get a more accurate assessment.

Fix the typo and it reads much better.

KS, draw a line through the middle of the dipsticks to get a more accurate assessment.

That eliminates Mana and the Greens ( and most of Labour for that matter ).

Keeping Stock said...

You'll have to excuse bsprout dip rout; seeing the Greens lose about 12% of their support in one hit must have been rather traumatic for him.

bsprout said...

Dips and peaks, KS, dips and peaks.

Keeping Stock said...

Grabbing at straws bsprout; grabbing at straws...