Monday, September 9, 2013

Photo of the Weekend

We spotted this late last night:


There's not much in that photo to make people from the Left smile, with both Labor in Australia and its New Zealand counterpart in disarray, racked with disunity.

Long may the good guys rule on both sides of the Tasman Sea!

2 comments:

James Stephenson said...

Madame Tussauds work quickly, don't they?

Armchair Critic said...

Long may the good guys rule on both sides of the Tasman Sea!
I have a theory on that. You might not like it, but that's by the by.

The theory is, essentially, that when the mood for change (of government) strikes in Australia, it also does so in New Zealand and the government changes at the next normal election. Conversely, when there is no mood for change the incumbent wins the election on both sides of the Tasman. To test the theory I looked back forty years at the cycle of elections and their outcomes. And I found:
In 1972 the elections in Aus (Dec) and NZ (Nov, a week earlier) resulted in a change in government.*
In 1975 the elections in Aus (Dec) and NZ (Nov, two weeks earlier) resulted in a change in government.
In 1977/78 the elections in Aus (Dec 77) and NZ (Nov 78, 11 months later) returned the incumbent.
In 1980/81 the elections in Aus (Oct 80) and NZ (Nov 81, 13 months later) returned the incumbent.
In 1983/84 the elections in Aus (March 83) and NZ (July 84, 16 months later resulted in a change of government*
In 1987 the elections in Aus (July) and NZ (August, one month later) returned the incumbent.
In 1993 the elections in Aus (March) and NZ (November, eight months later) returned the incumbent.
In 1996 the elections in Aus resulted in a change in government. The 1996 election in NZ was very close and did not end up with a change of government because Winston chose to go into coalition with the incumbent. The "mood for change" did not take effect on the NZ government until 3.5 years later in 1999.
In 2001/02 the elections in Aus (Nov 01) and NZ (July 02, eight months later) returned the incumbent.
In 2004/05 the elections in Aus (Oct 04) and NZ (Sep 05, 11 months later) returned the incumbent.
In 2007/08 the elections in Aus (Nov 07) and NZ (Nov 08, one year later) resulted in a change of government.
In 2010/11 the elections in Aus (Aug 10) and NZ (Nov 11, 15 months later) returned the incumbent.

The only one I've missed is 1990, where elections in Aus (Mar) and NZ (Oct) resulted in the incumbent being returned in Aus and a change of government in NZ.

So, in summary, since 1972:
NZ and Aus elections resulted in the same outcome 11 times.
NZ and Aus elections resulted in a difference outcome once. Just one single time.
There's some ambivalence around the timing of a potential twelfth "same outcome" in the mid to late 1990s (c/o Mr Peters).
It looks a lot like there is a relationship there - when Australia keeps its government, so do we. When Australia changes government, so do we.

As you well know, Australia just changed its government. And we have an election due in the next year or so....

* Intermediate elections for double dissolutions in Australia were excluded.