Friday, December 20, 2013

Has David Cunliffe's lustre worn off?

The Herald has published the results of its latest political poll today, and the news for the Left isn't great; Audrey Young has the details:

Labour's poll support has slipped after an initial surge following David Cunliffe's election as leader, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.
The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if the figures were translated to an election result.
With the left and right blocs fairly evenly split, it could be a close election next year.
Neither National nor Labour would be able to form a government without the Maori Party.
Labour has fallen 2.3 points in the survey to 35.4 per cent. In the September poll, it had a surge in support and could have formed a government with just the Greens and Mana.
National has risen 3.1 points and Prime Minister John Key has somewhat recovered in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, after taking a 9.4 point dive in the last poll.
He has jumped 6.1 points to 61.9 per cent, well ahead of Mr Cunliffe on 16.5 per cent.
Mr Key told the Herald last night that it was good to end the year in a strong position. "That reflects the growing economic confidence and the acknowledgement by voters that we've steered the ship on a very deliberate and accurate course to economic prosperity."
He said that strong year-end polls were important to parties "because people go on their summer holidays and over the barbecue they talk about who is likely to win the election and this poll has got to be very good news for National".

Here are the results in graphical form:

 
After the plethora of asset sales-related propaganda publicity and the Christchurch East by-election, Labour will be bitterly disappointed with this poll. Whilst Labour's share of the vote is higher than it was at the 2011 General Election, National's is only 0.5% less than the mark that it recorded; the highest share of the party vote ever recorded under MMP. And interestingly, the minor party vote has dropped markedly.

It's an excellent note for National and John Key to finish the year on, but David Cunliffe will be deeply disappointed. As the economy continues to prosper, he has a mountain to climb in 2014.

5 comments:

Kent Brockman said...

This just in, 16.5% also represents the level of Cunliffes support in the Labour caucus.

Keeping Stock said...

That's very cruel Kent.

bsprout said...

One poll is like one test. it never gives the whole picture. If you use an average of all polls it provides a more realistic predictor: http://polity.co.nz/poll-of-polls

We also need to remember that National is the only party of the right now (with the demise of Act and United Future) so anyone who supports the right ends up supporting National. What we have is the country is split evenly between right and left (if you use these much debated terms) with 45% supporting the right and 45% supporting the left.

New Zealand First has been strongly anti National for some time and their Grey Power supporters are very anti asset sales. NZ First's 4.3% average means that opposition to National is clearly greater than the support.

Building up the Conservative Party is now National's only hope and as we have seen last time, fabricating a party never works. We could pretend the Conservatives have substance but once in Government they would be a bigger liability than Act and United Future have been.

PM of NZ said...

BS, a feral like yourself suggesting young Colin's a liability screams hypocritical to me. Greenies are an outright liability to any economy.

Ross said...

@bsprout

Come on - fabricating a party has worked exceptionally well for the Greens.

You pretend to be environmentally aware and conscious (your brand), where as in reality you are just another far left front for failed communist ideology.

If it can work for the Greens then I am sure it can work for the Conservative Party :)