Sunday, July 20, 2014

It's official; all polls now have Labour in the 20's

Up until the end of June, there was a glimmer of hope for David Cunliffe and the Labour Party. One poll still had Labour polling in to 30's; the Herald DigiPoll (30.5%).

Sadly (if you're a Labour MP or supporter) the new Herald DigiPoll is out today, and it has fallen into step with all the other polls; the Herald reports:

Labour's support has slumped to its worst rating for 15 years in the latest DigiPoll survey, putting critical pressure on leader David Cunliffe.
Its 26.5 per cent support is a slide of four points since June.
With just two months to the election, Labour could slip into the disastrous territory held by National in 2002, when it polled 20.93 per cent in the face of the highly popular Labour Government.
On this poll of decided voters National would be able to govern alone comfortably and gain another 10 MPs.
National has jumped 4.5 points to 54.9 per cent. A Stuff/Ipsos poll earlier this week also put support for National at 54.8 per cent.
Prime Minister John Key is more popular than he has ever been, scoring preferred prime minister on 73.3 per cent, compared with Cunliffe on 10.5 per cent and New Zealand First's Winston Peters on 5.5 per cent.

This is another dreadful poll result for Labour and its leader David Cunliffe. Parliament resumes on Tuesday for its final two-week sitting before the General Election, and Labour's support is crumbling. The education policies announced at the party's congress a fortnight ago appear to have been rejected by voters. Either that, or the phone is off the hook, and nothing that Labour promises is going to connect with voters.

Here's how the Parliament would look under DigiPoll's numbers:

We understand there's a 3News poll out tonight as well. If that also shows Labour in the 20's, that will make four of the five main polls telling the same story in a matter of four days, with only the One News-Colmar Brunton poll remaining to complete the July cycle.

And we'll leave the last word on this poll to veteran leftie activist Chris Trotter. Asked for comment by the Herald, he has told the truth:

Political commentator Chris Trotter said the poll indicated Labour was "more or less bereft of hope".
"Labour is in an extremely parlous position, and the situation is deteriorating."

There's only one question left to be asked; how low can Labour go?


Duncan Brown said...

Three seats IMP are three too many. I still haven't seen an informed comment on what will happen in the House if they do go their separate ways after six weeks per their agreement.

Keeping Stock said...

You make a good point Duncan. What MegaMana is doing is unprecedented.

pdm said...

Inv - unprecedented and unscrupulous.

Keeping Stock said...

No argument there pdm

alwyn said...

The poll figures do show that claims made on "The Standard" a couple of months ago were correct. When the first polls showed Labour at about 30% there was an immediate, concerted scream that each of the polls was merely a "rogue" poll, as they remained convinced that Labour was really in the upper 30's and was sure to win the election.
Well it appears that 30% WAS a rogue poll, being a much higher figure than Labour could achieve. Oh the joy to see their deputy leader missing out on a seat if the ipredict electorate numbers are correct and they end up with no list seats at all.

alloy said...

I'm hoping Kevin Davis thrashes Hone and Internet mana get 4.9% (Mostly off the Greens).

Frankly it wouldn't hurt Labour in the long term to shed some dead wood. It wouldn't hurt NZ in the short term either.

Missy said...

One factor they need to take note of from the 3 News poll is that the country wants Cunliffe to rule out categorically any possibility of Labour working with IMP, this could actually work to their advantage, as going on the poll results a majority of Labour voters don't want it either.

And on that, this bit from the story online is very telling... ""He will have no choice but to work for us," says Internet Party founder Kim Dotcom." I note Kim Dotcom says FOR us, not WITH us, a Freudian slip which shows just how narcissistic he is, and how he thinks things will go. Anyone who doesn't believe that his political venture is solely about him getting control of government to avoid extradition is living in some alternative universe, this says clearly he believes Labour will be working for him.

No wonder voters are spooked about the thought of Labour working with IMP, the least Cunliffe can do is to give assurance he won't work with them, otherwise he might find the poll results getting worse.

Angry Tory said...

Frankly it wouldn't hurt Labour in the long term to shed some dead wood.

Oh I can only hope it does!

It wouldn't hurt NZ in the short term either.

the only thing that wouldn't hurt NZ is th labour party ceasing to exist. Can anyone explain why NZ needs a Labour party? No? Gee I am surprised.