In a far cry from the Decade of Deficits Day in 2008, the 2014 Prefu, the symbolic pre-election opening of the books, has passed with barely a ripple; Stuff reports:
The economy is growing strongly, but Treasury has cut the amount it
expects to raise in tax and with it, the size of future surpluses.
Today the Treasury released the pre-election economic and fiscal
update (Prefu), giving an update on the state of the Government's books
just a month out from the election.
Crucially, Finance Minister Bill English's long promised surplus for
2014/15 is said to be on track by Treasury, the Crown's official bean
counter. The surplus is, in fiscal terms, wafer-thin at $297 million,
down from $372m in the last forecast, and equivalent to just 0.2 per
cent of total economic output.
But the outlook for surpluses in the following years is markedly
weaker than it was in May's Budget, delivered just two months ago.
In each of the next three years Treasury has cut the projected
surplus by $500m, meaning the combined surplus between now and mid-2018
is $6 billion, some $1.5b below what it was expected to be in autumn.
The lower surplus forecasts means there is less scope for new
spending by the Government, and that Crown debt would take longer to
reduce.
Today Treasury said debt, in nominal terms, would now peak at $67.9b
in 2018. It was expected to peak at $65.5b in 2017. With debt taking
longer to fall, Treasury said, based on current settings, payments to
the NZ Superannuation Fund, put on hold when National came to office as
the recession hit, would be delayed a year to 2020/21.
Nevertheless, the economy in general is "growing strongly", Treasury Secretary Gabriel Makhlouf said.
Forecast to grow at an average of 2.8 per cent over the next four
years, Makhlouf said this was "above its sustainable long term capacity
to grow" meaning inflationary pressure on the economy is building with a
strong residential housing market in Auckland and Christchurch.
That the economy is forecast to continue to grow strongly, but not too strongly, is good news indeed. Unemployment is falling, more people are in employment than ever before in New Zealand's history, exports hit $50 billion for the first time ever, and inflation remains low. Much of that can be attributed to Bill English's "steady as she goes" management of the economy through the Global Financial Crisis and the recession which followed.
And Treasury Secretary Gabriel Makhlouf sounded a warning today in releasing the Prefu:
The National Party's campaign slogan for 2014 is Working for New Zealand. But on Friday, National showed it is Working for Whanganui as well.
Retiring Health Minister Tony Ryall was in town to help launch Chester Borrows' campaign for a fourth term as MP for Whanganui. Whilst he was here he made a very significant announcement which has delighted a local health provider; check this out:
$2m initiative for healthier Wanganui families
Health Minister Tony Ryall today announced Te Oranganui has been
selected to lead a $2 million anti-obesity initiative in Wanganui which
will help families improve their health.
Mr Ryall shared with news with locals while out and about in Wanganui this morning with Whanganui MP Chester Borrows.
“Healthy Families NZ is a new $40 million initiative which aims to
improve people’s health where they live, learn, work and play in order
to prevent obesity,” says Mr Ryall.
“It is a complete reform of the way we address the underlying causes
of poor health, including obesity, smoking and excessive drinking.
“Te Oranganui, who is also the lead agent of Whānau Ora in the
region, will lead the Healthy Families NZ initiative in Wanganui. They
will recruit a dedicated health promotion workforce who will work with
schools, early childhood education centres, workplaces and sport clubs
to encourage and support people to make healthy lifestyle choices.
“Encouraging individuals and their families to live healthy, active
lives is part of the government’s approach to reducing the prevalence
and consequences of chronic disease in New Zealand,” says Mr Ryall.
From October 2014, Healthy Families NZ will roll out to 10
communities – East Cape, the Far North District, Invercargill, Lower
Hutt, Rotorua, Whanganui, Manukau, Manurewa-Papakura, Spreydon-Heathcote
and Waitakere. It is expected to reach around 900,000 New Zealanders.
Healthy Families NZ is based on one of the very few anti-obesity
programmes that actually work - Healthy Together Victoria programme from
Australia.
Te Oranganui is far more than "just" a Whanau Ora provider. It is a leading , innovative health promotion organisation with a track record of success in improving outcomes.
The Healthy Families NZ initiative is an excellent one. As Mr Ryall notes above, it is about a new approach to chronic diseases such as those arising from obesity, smoking and drinking. Although Te Oranganui is an Iwi Health Authority, it works right across the community. In addition to operating Te Waipuna Health Centres in Wanganui, Waverley and Ohakune, Te Oranganui offers a range of services including disability support, mental health liaison, and services for infants, children, youth, families and the elderly.
This investment in the Whanganui region will be most welcome. Getting to the root of issues such as obesity will lead to significant savings further down the track. We commend the Government for showing in a tangible way that it is Working for Whanganui.
Hamish Walker is the National Party candidate for Dunedin South. He'll be going up against Labour MP Clare Curran, who doesn't have the comfort of the party list to fall back on.
And Hamish Walker has shown just how dedicated he is to the cause; Ele from Homepaddock reports:
Hamish Walker, National’s candidate in Dunedin South received one of those Ice Challenges and accepted it with a twist.
He chose to do it by total immersion in the sea at St Clair,wearing a
kilt, with the support of some Young Nats and the accompaniment of the
bagpipes.
It goes to show there’s no sea cold enough to stop the pursuit of
party votes for National and #TeamKey who are seeking #3moreyears.
You can see it on video here - while you’re there you could like his Facebook page too.
You've got to have a reasonably tough hide to jump into the sea off Dunedin at the best of times. But to do it in the middle of winter, clad in a kilt and the the accompaniment of bagpipes is not only fitting for the Edinburgh of the South, but a rare old show of dedication.
Dunedin South is traditionally a Labour stronghold. Clare Curran had a majority of just over 4000 votes in 2011. Significantly though, National won the party vote in Dunedin South which was a fantastic effort. If there is to be an upset, who better to deliver it than a Dunedin-born, kilt-wearing, bagpipe-playing lad by the name of Hamish, totally dedicated to the cause?
Best of luck Hamish Walker. Here's hoping there was a wee dram waiting to help you thaw out!
We blogged in May about National Party List MP Claudette Hauiti making an unacceptable cock-up. Unfortunately, she's in the news again for another lapse of judgment as the Herald reports:
National Party MP Claudette Hauiti has given up her parliamentary
charge card after she used it to pay for a personal trip to Australia.
"I went to Australia. It was travel only and way outside Parliamentary Service guidelines," she told Fairfax Media.
She
said the trip over Christmas last year and other questionable spending,
including refreshments for a hui on a marae, had cost about $200, which
she has since repaid.
"Of course it's absolutely no excuse for not knowing the Speaker's rulings. It is my responsibility and I didn't do it."
Parliamentary Service refused to provide a total of unauthorised spending, or comment on the matter.
"A
new release of parliamentary information protocol has just been
presented for debate in the House, and it would appear that this
information is covered under it.
The Service cannot make any comment. Any requests for information should be made to the member," a spokeswoman said.
That's two strikes for Claudette Hauiti. We don't care that she is a National Party MP; she has let herself fall into the trap of questionable use of taxpayer funds, and that is, in our book, a big no-no.
Ms Hauiti was ranked at #63 on the National Party list in 2011, but entered Parliament with the resignation of Aaron "Don't you know who I am" Gilmore. We don't know if the 2014 National Party list has yet been set in stone, but Ms Hauiti his quite possibly cost herself any chance of promotion.
MP's of all stripes need to remember it's not their money they're spending. It comes from those of us who pay taxes, and we deserve better.
